Some Story Lines
Dome Perfection
9-0 vs. 10-0 those are their respective marks. The Colts were undefeated at home this season, one of two, the other being the recently knocked off Chargers, while Tom Brady is undefeated during his entire career while playing in a dome. In fact Brady typically plays masterfully inside, minus negative conditions, and perfect footing. One of these marks is getting broken.
Vinatieri Effect
All this talk about losing Vinatieri being an incredible negative for the Pats is overblown. Have you watch this Gostkowski kid kick this postseason / the latter portion of the season? He has the exact same demeanor as Vinatieri, I don't see him missing a big kick either. Now the issue with losing Vinatieri does become a big issue in this game though, because he has replaced Vanderweenie, the Peyton Manning of Kickers. This upgrade could very well be the difference between a 2 point loss and a 1 point victory.
Pats Game Plan
The Pats in their first matchup decided to abandon the run. Last week they abandoned the run. If they Colts have been terrible all season but the past two weeks at stopping the run, and you would like to play ball control football one would think that the Pats would try much harder to establish the run and avoid a situation where Brady throws 51 passes.
Edge Battle
Quarterback: Pats - Brady is simply more clutch and a better performer in the playoffs.
Running Backs: Pats - Maroney and Dillon are better than Addai and Rhodes, throw in the fact that Faulk is an invaluable 3rd down back and this is a solid edge for the Pats.
Wide Receivers: Indy - I know Gaffney and Caldwell have played well, but lets put their play as directly corresponding to the QB throwing them the ball. The Colts have a big edge with Wayne and Harrison at this position.
Tight Ends: Push - Dallas Clark can be an impact player, or he can be overlooked. Same can be said for Graham or Watson.
Special Teams: Push - I like Vinatieri slightly more than Gostkowski on field goals, but Sauerbraun has been big on field position in recent weeks, and Gostkowski has a booming leg on kickoffs. Neither team has a particularly dynamic returner.
Defense: Pats - Lets not overblow the fact that the Colts shutdown two bad offenses and think that they are all of a sudden a great defense. They're not. The Pats gave up the least amount of points this season in the Belichick era, they're good and they might get Harrison back.
Coach: Pats - You've got to be an idiot to take Dungy.
The Pick
Brain vs. Gut thats the issue with this pick. My gut has led me to pick the Colts the past two weeks and has me feeling that this just might be the year that the Colts get over the hump for the sole reason that no one gave them a chance this playoffs. My brain is overwhelmingly telling me to ignore this feeling. Telling me that this is the same Peyton Manning that continually lets down in the postseason, this is the same Belichick and Brady that continually steps up in these exact scenarios, these are the Pats they find a way to win in the end. And since i'm more analytical than spontaneous the brain is kicking the gut feeling out the window and unfortunately I'm picking the Pats to win. Gag.
Dome Perfection
9-0 vs. 10-0 those are their respective marks. The Colts were undefeated at home this season, one of two, the other being the recently knocked off Chargers, while Tom Brady is undefeated during his entire career while playing in a dome. In fact Brady typically plays masterfully inside, minus negative conditions, and perfect footing. One of these marks is getting broken.
Vinatieri Effect
All this talk about losing Vinatieri being an incredible negative for the Pats is overblown. Have you watch this Gostkowski kid kick this postseason / the latter portion of the season? He has the exact same demeanor as Vinatieri, I don't see him missing a big kick either. Now the issue with losing Vinatieri does become a big issue in this game though, because he has replaced Vanderweenie, the Peyton Manning of Kickers. This upgrade could very well be the difference between a 2 point loss and a 1 point victory.
Pats Game Plan
The Pats in their first matchup decided to abandon the run. Last week they abandoned the run. If they Colts have been terrible all season but the past two weeks at stopping the run, and you would like to play ball control football one would think that the Pats would try much harder to establish the run and avoid a situation where Brady throws 51 passes.
Edge Battle
Quarterback: Pats - Brady is simply more clutch and a better performer in the playoffs.
Running Backs: Pats - Maroney and Dillon are better than Addai and Rhodes, throw in the fact that Faulk is an invaluable 3rd down back and this is a solid edge for the Pats.
Wide Receivers: Indy - I know Gaffney and Caldwell have played well, but lets put their play as directly corresponding to the QB throwing them the ball. The Colts have a big edge with Wayne and Harrison at this position.
Tight Ends: Push - Dallas Clark can be an impact player, or he can be overlooked. Same can be said for Graham or Watson.
Special Teams: Push - I like Vinatieri slightly more than Gostkowski on field goals, but Sauerbraun has been big on field position in recent weeks, and Gostkowski has a booming leg on kickoffs. Neither team has a particularly dynamic returner.
Defense: Pats - Lets not overblow the fact that the Colts shutdown two bad offenses and think that they are all of a sudden a great defense. They're not. The Pats gave up the least amount of points this season in the Belichick era, they're good and they might get Harrison back.
Coach: Pats - You've got to be an idiot to take Dungy.
The Pick
Brain vs. Gut thats the issue with this pick. My gut has led me to pick the Colts the past two weeks and has me feeling that this just might be the year that the Colts get over the hump for the sole reason that no one gave them a chance this playoffs. My brain is overwhelmingly telling me to ignore this feeling. Telling me that this is the same Peyton Manning that continually lets down in the postseason, this is the same Belichick and Brady that continually steps up in these exact scenarios, these are the Pats they find a way to win in the end. And since i'm more analytical than spontaneous the brain is kicking the gut feeling out the window and unfortunately I'm picking the Pats to win. Gag.
Comments