For my league the key for your relief pitcher is getting saves. If you don't get saves from a relief pitcher than he's a waste regardless of his K totals and ERA. Thus the rankings mirror who is the safest bet to pick up saves throughout the season with peripheral stats for the most part only being marginal tie breakers. Sure a 4.50 era from your closer stinks, but he only throws about 70 innings, which is almosr negligable in comparison to the 200 innings you will be getting from the majority of your starters. This also means that I would draft any closer at the bottom end / high risk of losing his job prior to any set up man I think may win the job in a few weeks.
Right now I believe the top 13 closers are definately going to keep their job this season, if you look past those 13 there are easily foreseeable scenarios where they could be yanked from the job, either from performance or injury.
1. Joe Nathan, Minnesota Twins - He's a stud and completely reliable. He hasn't had any injuries in recent history and with the diminished pitching staff this season the Twins will need his services more than ever. If he doesn't finish the season with 40+ saves I would be shocked.
2. Francisco Rodriguez, LAA Angels - K-Rod is nasty and the point could be made that he is the #1 closer in the bigs currently, especially with the Angels being forseeably better than the Twins this season. I give Nathan the edge because he's very reliable, and K-Rod's delivery is so wild that an injury isn't out of the question.
3. B.J. Ryan, Toronto Blue Jays - BJ arguably had the best season of any closer in the bigs last year and I doubt there will be any downturn.
4. Billy Wagner, New York Mets - Safe pickup. Always healthy on a great team. Very good K rate. Not many negatives with Billy the kid.
5. Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees - The Yanks have built up there bullpen more this season than ever before. This will give Mariano breaks in action to keep him healthy and fresh. Perhaps, the save totals will be a little lower than years past but the peripheral numbers will stay steadt.
6. Huston Street, Oakland Athletics -
7. Trevor Hoffman, San Diego Padres - Hoffman in my opinion should have won the NL Cy Young last year. Healthy again this season Hoffman can certainly put up gaudy save numbers, it's the K rate that makes him less appealing than those higher.
8. Bobby Jenks, Chicago White Sox -
9. Chad Cordero, Washington Nationals -
10. J.J. Putz, Seattle Mariners -
11. Chris Ray, Baltimore Orioles -
12. Francisco Cordero, Milwaukee Brewers -
13. Brian Fuentes, Colorado Rockies -
14. Takashi Saito, Los Angeles Dodgers - This is the point where I begin to think people can get replaced. Everyone above is relatively safe to keep their position but from Saito down, there are legitamate questionmarks. For Saito he had one very good season, but Broxton has more ability in the setup role. Struggles and a switch could easily be made.
15. Brad Lidge, Houston Astros - What is going on in this guys head? The Astros gave him way too many opportunities last season and I just can't see that happening again. Sure he could be phenominal but what happens if he sucks again and someone beats you to the punch to pick up Wheeler. Than you're scrambling.
16. Bob Wickman, Atlanta Braves - The Braves just picked up one of the most reliable closers of the past two seasons. Yet he's still the man currently. Wicky always seems to do a good job in the job so unless that changes, which I don't necessarily see, he should keep the job. The biggest worry for me is if he gets banged up, Gonzo could easily step in and then hold the job.
17. Todd Jones, Detroit Tigers -
18. Tom Gordon, Philadelphia Phillies - The Phillies should be good this season, and Tom Gordon was very good last season. But he's an old man and there's a significant chance his body begins its breakdown process in the near future.
19. Jason Isringhausen, St. Louis Cardinals - Was ineffective for the most part last season and injured at the end of the year. But the Cardinals will win their share of games and Wainwright appears to be destined to for the starting rotation so there are not many people up his heals right now.
20. Eric Gagne, Texas Rangers - Thus concludes the back-to-back-to-back old guys with big time injury risks. Gagne hasn't been the same for a very long time. Sure he could return to his dominant form. But more likely he blows out his elbow and doesn't pitch more than a month of the season. Big time risk/reward. If you have him and someone else has Otsuka, you could be in trouble.
21. Jose Valverde, Arizona Diamondbacks -
22. Joe Borowski, Cleveland Indians -
23. Ryan Dempster, Chicago Cubs -
24. Salomon Torres, Pittsburgh Pirates -
25. Armando Benitez, San Francisco Giants -
26. Seth McClung, Tampa Bay Devil Rays -
27. Taylor Tankersley, Florida Marlins - The Marlins closer always seems to pick up a lot of saves and Tankersley appears to be the lead candidate for the job. If he can lock it down and look good the first month he could easily pick up 35 saves. But until he does that he's a risk pick.
28. Octavio Dotel, Kansas City Royals - Until I see something in spring training I'll keep my distance. But I have always been a big fan of Dotel and if he returns to the form he had prior to the Tommy John than he will easily control the Royals closer job. If he has success though, he could be shopped at the break for a setup role.
29. Joel Pineiro, Boston Red Sox - Closer of the Red Sox is a very valuable fantasy job to own. But anyone comfortable in saying Pineiro is the guy right now? His value could be sky high or zero. Just look atleast year, there were hints Papelbon would take over the closer job eventually. But come the opening day he was it, and his value for the remainder of the season was through the roof.
30. David Weathers, Cincinnati Reds - Currently slotted in as the closer. I have zero faith he will keep it and would be a last ditch effort for me to draft him.
31. Akinori Otsuka, Texas Rangers - Anybody a bigger injury risk than Eric Gagne? Otsuka had a superb season last year and I was pretty surprised when the Rangers felt the need to to sign Gagne. If Otsuka was guaranteed the closers job this season he would easily be top 15, but now without the security he drops to my top spot without a job.
32. Mike Gonzalez, Atlanta Braves - He's been lights out as a closer for the Pirates for the past two seasons so any slip up from Wicky and he could quickly be slotted into that role. However, he's not in it yet, and may never be in it. Similarly to Otsuka he would have been up there in reliability had he stayed in Pittsburgh.
33. Dan Wheeler, Houston Astros - Wheeler picked up some saves last season when Lidge faltered. The Astros this season won't have the same patience with Lidge this season and after a few terrible outings in April, Wheeler could get the quick call.
34. Joel Zumaya, Detroit Tigers - Eventually Zumaya is going to win the closers job, will this year be it. Probably not unless Jones gets injured or really struggles.
35. Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers - Saito had one solid season but Broxton has better stuff.
36. Kerry Wood, Cubs - Dempster is inconsistant and if Wood could adjust well to his relief role he has the stuff to assume the closer job and run with it.
Right now I believe the top 13 closers are definately going to keep their job this season, if you look past those 13 there are easily foreseeable scenarios where they could be yanked from the job, either from performance or injury.
1. Joe Nathan, Minnesota Twins - He's a stud and completely reliable. He hasn't had any injuries in recent history and with the diminished pitching staff this season the Twins will need his services more than ever. If he doesn't finish the season with 40+ saves I would be shocked.
2. Francisco Rodriguez, LAA Angels - K-Rod is nasty and the point could be made that he is the #1 closer in the bigs currently, especially with the Angels being forseeably better than the Twins this season. I give Nathan the edge because he's very reliable, and K-Rod's delivery is so wild that an injury isn't out of the question.
3. B.J. Ryan, Toronto Blue Jays - BJ arguably had the best season of any closer in the bigs last year and I doubt there will be any downturn.
4. Billy Wagner, New York Mets - Safe pickup. Always healthy on a great team. Very good K rate. Not many negatives with Billy the kid.
5. Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees - The Yanks have built up there bullpen more this season than ever before. This will give Mariano breaks in action to keep him healthy and fresh. Perhaps, the save totals will be a little lower than years past but the peripheral numbers will stay steadt.
6. Huston Street, Oakland Athletics -
7. Trevor Hoffman, San Diego Padres - Hoffman in my opinion should have won the NL Cy Young last year. Healthy again this season Hoffman can certainly put up gaudy save numbers, it's the K rate that makes him less appealing than those higher.
8. Bobby Jenks, Chicago White Sox -
9. Chad Cordero, Washington Nationals -
10. J.J. Putz, Seattle Mariners -
11. Chris Ray, Baltimore Orioles -
12. Francisco Cordero, Milwaukee Brewers -
13. Brian Fuentes, Colorado Rockies -
14. Takashi Saito, Los Angeles Dodgers - This is the point where I begin to think people can get replaced. Everyone above is relatively safe to keep their position but from Saito down, there are legitamate questionmarks. For Saito he had one very good season, but Broxton has more ability in the setup role. Struggles and a switch could easily be made.
15. Brad Lidge, Houston Astros - What is going on in this guys head? The Astros gave him way too many opportunities last season and I just can't see that happening again. Sure he could be phenominal but what happens if he sucks again and someone beats you to the punch to pick up Wheeler. Than you're scrambling.
16. Bob Wickman, Atlanta Braves - The Braves just picked up one of the most reliable closers of the past two seasons. Yet he's still the man currently. Wicky always seems to do a good job in the job so unless that changes, which I don't necessarily see, he should keep the job. The biggest worry for me is if he gets banged up, Gonzo could easily step in and then hold the job.
17. Todd Jones, Detroit Tigers -
18. Tom Gordon, Philadelphia Phillies - The Phillies should be good this season, and Tom Gordon was very good last season. But he's an old man and there's a significant chance his body begins its breakdown process in the near future.
19. Jason Isringhausen, St. Louis Cardinals - Was ineffective for the most part last season and injured at the end of the year. But the Cardinals will win their share of games and Wainwright appears to be destined to for the starting rotation so there are not many people up his heals right now.
20. Eric Gagne, Texas Rangers - Thus concludes the back-to-back-to-back old guys with big time injury risks. Gagne hasn't been the same for a very long time. Sure he could return to his dominant form. But more likely he blows out his elbow and doesn't pitch more than a month of the season. Big time risk/reward. If you have him and someone else has Otsuka, you could be in trouble.
21. Jose Valverde, Arizona Diamondbacks -
22. Joe Borowski, Cleveland Indians -
23. Ryan Dempster, Chicago Cubs -
24. Salomon Torres, Pittsburgh Pirates -
25. Armando Benitez, San Francisco Giants -
26. Seth McClung, Tampa Bay Devil Rays -
27. Taylor Tankersley, Florida Marlins - The Marlins closer always seems to pick up a lot of saves and Tankersley appears to be the lead candidate for the job. If he can lock it down and look good the first month he could easily pick up 35 saves. But until he does that he's a risk pick.
28. Octavio Dotel, Kansas City Royals - Until I see something in spring training I'll keep my distance. But I have always been a big fan of Dotel and if he returns to the form he had prior to the Tommy John than he will easily control the Royals closer job. If he has success though, he could be shopped at the break for a setup role.
29. Joel Pineiro, Boston Red Sox - Closer of the Red Sox is a very valuable fantasy job to own. But anyone comfortable in saying Pineiro is the guy right now? His value could be sky high or zero. Just look atleast year, there were hints Papelbon would take over the closer job eventually. But come the opening day he was it, and his value for the remainder of the season was through the roof.
30. David Weathers, Cincinnati Reds - Currently slotted in as the closer. I have zero faith he will keep it and would be a last ditch effort for me to draft him.
31. Akinori Otsuka, Texas Rangers - Anybody a bigger injury risk than Eric Gagne? Otsuka had a superb season last year and I was pretty surprised when the Rangers felt the need to to sign Gagne. If Otsuka was guaranteed the closers job this season he would easily be top 15, but now without the security he drops to my top spot without a job.
32. Mike Gonzalez, Atlanta Braves - He's been lights out as a closer for the Pirates for the past two seasons so any slip up from Wicky and he could quickly be slotted into that role. However, he's not in it yet, and may never be in it. Similarly to Otsuka he would have been up there in reliability had he stayed in Pittsburgh.
33. Dan Wheeler, Houston Astros - Wheeler picked up some saves last season when Lidge faltered. The Astros this season won't have the same patience with Lidge this season and after a few terrible outings in April, Wheeler could get the quick call.
34. Joel Zumaya, Detroit Tigers - Eventually Zumaya is going to win the closers job, will this year be it. Probably not unless Jones gets injured or really struggles.
35. Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers - Saito had one solid season but Broxton has better stuff.
36. Kerry Wood, Cubs - Dempster is inconsistant and if Wood could adjust well to his relief role he has the stuff to assume the closer job and run with it.
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