Friday, May 07, 2010
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If you were to play Vegas for a moment, I think one of the most intriguing Over/Unders you could put together for the remainder of the 2010 season would be how many wins 2009 Cy Young Award winner Zack Greinke will wind up with. Greinke went the entire month of April without a victory despite numbers that frankly were top of the line starter stuff. Greinke's statline through 6 games reads 39.2 IP, 2.27 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 33 Ks. So why does he yet to have a recorded a win this season? Well he plays on the Royals to start. The team has yet to score more than 4 runs in any of his 6 outings. Then you throw on the fact that he's working with the Royals bullpen, who gives up ample runs once he leaves the game, and you have an 0-3 pitcher with tremendous numbers.
So lets rebring up my original question, if you were to set the line on Greinke victories this season where would you put it? He's still is in line to start 27 more games. He's healthy and pitching better fantastic over his last three starts (22 innings 3 runs) but the Royals do suck. I truly believe he's no different than he was last year and will pitch to an ERA somewhere along the lines of 2.44 but to set a win total means trying to figure to calculate the factors of Royals offense and Royals bullpen.
If I had to set the line, I think I'd still set it relatively high. Say 13 over his next 27 starts. So would you take the over or the under on that bet?