Wednesday, May 05, 2010
When I was driving into work this morning I heard on the radio that New York Jet fans were polled and said that they expected the Jets to go 15-1 and this season. Now I know that Jet fans can be cocky assholes sometimes, despite never really ever having anything to brag about, but I also know that the average Jet fan is overall pretty pessimistic so this result didn't make much sense to me. And then you take a look at how "15-1" was actually reached and you realize that it is a completely bogus report.
The survey didn't actually ask fans what they thought the Jets record would be. They didn't take an average of how many wins each Jet fan thought they would win on the season. Rather the surveyed Jet fans on all 16 games to see whether or not Jet fans on average thought they would lose any one particular game. And when you have a team that likely all Jet fans will win 10-12 games then chances are you aren't going to get many "consensus" losses because people will think that the team will lose on different weeks of the season. And thus the only week Jet fans definitely think their team is going to lose is against the Patriots at Foxboro.
In reality when you take an average percentage picked for a win for all the games of the season, the Jet fans picked a little over 13 wins for the 2010 Jets. This is overly optimistic and skewing towards a fantasy world but not nearly as psychotic as the full blown lie of 15-1 that ESPN is yelling about.