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NFC Playoff Breakdown

2 Weeks left and in typical NFL fashion all the Wild Card Spots are up for grabs and has tons of fans looking up the NFL Tie-Breaker Rules. Well here's a little breakdown of what can or has to drop in your teams favor in order to get that bye or last Wild Card.

Clinched Division

Chicago Bears

Clinched: NFC North Champs #1 seed

The Bears now can relax during their final two weeks as they have clinched the #1 seed in the NFC. It will be interesting to see what Lovie decides to do with his starters, who he decides to rest and how he decides to attack on offense. One would have to think that with Rex coming off one of the best games in his career Coach Smith might be best served to attempt to keep Rex in a good flow entering the playoffs.

Remaining Schedule: @Det, GB

Fighting for a Bye

New Orleans Saints

Clinched: NFC South Division Title
Likely Spot: #2 or #3 Seed
How to Clinch Bye: Win Out or Finish in a Tie for #2 Seed

This weekends loss to Washington was very detrimental to the Saints locking down that 1st round bye and makes this weeks matchup vs. the Giants that much bigger. The Saints do have an advantage over the remaining contenders for the bye though as they have beaten the Eagles and Cowboys and have a much better conference record than the Seahawks. Neither of their remaining games are easy though.

Remaining Schedule: @NYG, CAR

Dallas Cowboys

Clinched: Playoff Spot
Likely Spot: NFC East Champs #2 or #3 seed
How to Win Division: Defeat Eagles this weekend or Defeat Lions Combined with Eagles Loss to Atlanta Week 17.
How to Clinch Bye: Win out Combined with a Saints Loss.

The Cowboys increased their division championship hopes with a win in Atlanta but are still not out of the woods yet. A loss this weekend to the Eagles puts them in scoreboard watch mode on the final sunday. It's as simple as this win the game sunday at home against Philly and you have your division title, and you can go and start rooting for the Saints to get knocked off.

Remaining Schedule: PHI, DET

Seattle Seahawks

How to Get In: One Win or One 49er loss Clinches West Title
Likely Spot: NFC West Champs #3 or #4 seed

The Seahawks decided that it was in their best interest to lose games to the 49ers and Cardinals and now have a very limited chance of gaining that 1st round bye. In order to do that the Seahawks would have to run the table, and that includes defeating the Chargers next week, and with the way they have defended the run in recent weeks, I find that highly unlikely.

Remaining Schedule: SD, @TB

Right At the Finish Line

Philadelphia Eagles

Likely Spot: Wild Card #5 Seed
How to Clinch Division: Win Out or Finish in Tie for Division Lead
How to Clinch Wild Card: Win A Single Game
How to Bye It: Win Out Combined with Saints Dual Losses

The Eagles have positioned themselves in a very good spot to make the playoffs. They can win the division by winning out or win a wild card spot by defeating either the Falcons or the Cowboys, only a two game losing streak would keep the Eagles out of the playoffs. They even have a chance for a bye.

Remaining Schedule: @DAL, ATL

Control Their Destiny

Atlanta Falcons

Likely Spot: Jim Mora Fired
How to Get In: Win Out In anything else makes it almost impossible

Due to the very weird tie-breaker system the Falcons despite their loss to the Giants control their own destiny. If the Falcons win out and finish in a three way tie with the Giants and Eagles at 9-7 the Falcons in fact get the #5 seed. The first tie-breaker in a 3-way tie is to eliminate the lower division seed, which would in this case be the Giants, this would get the Falcons the 5 seed due to their victory over the Eagles. With that being said I just don't see the Falcons winning their last two games due to their inconsistencies.

Remaining Schedule: CAR, @PHI

Win Out and Things Will Work Themselves Out

New York Giants

Likely Spot: Wildcard #6 Seed
How to Wildcard: Win Out Combined with a Falcons Loss or Two Eagles Losses or Finish in a Sole Tie with the Falcons for final spot

The Giants have a solid conference record and two winnable games remaining on their schedule, but due not contrary to popular belief control their own destiny. If you're Tom Coughlin simply get your team to win both games and things will fall into place. A tie at 8-8 for the last spot will most likely get the Giants in, the only teams that would hold an 8-8 edge on the Giants are the Vikings and possibly the Eagles depending on which game the Giants won.

Remaining Schedule: NO, @WAS

The 6-8 LongShots

Minnesota Vikings

Likely Spot: On the Fringe, but just out of the postseason
How to Wildcard: Finish 8-8 in a tie for the Final WildCard Spot

The Vikings killer this season, swept by the AFC East. If the Vikings could get to 8-8 and sit with a tie with either the Falcons, Giants or Eagles they will get in due to what would be an 8-4 conference record. Despite their poor play against the Jets they have the best chance of any 6-8 team to make the playoffs.

Remaining Schedule: @GB, @STL

Green Bay Packers

Likely Spot: More Brett Favre Retirement Drama
How to WildCard: Finish in 8-8 tie for Final Spot with Anyone But Giants or Eagles

The Packers need a lot to happen, namely the Giants losing every remaining game and the Eagles finishing as either the 5th seed or NFC East Division Champ as they would have to make up 100 point margin of victory deficit to the Eagles in the final weeks to win that tiebreaker.

Remaining Schedule: MIN, @CHI

San Francisco 49ers

Likely Spot: Overachieved in 06, but not to the playoffs
How to Win Division: Win Out combined with Seattle Losing Out

The 49ers had a much better than expected season and its nice to see a little development in Alex Smith and the emergence of Frank Gore. If they somehow were able to sneak out the division title that would be thrilling.

Remaining Schedule: ARI, @DEN

Carolina Panthers

Likely Spot: A Lost Season
How to WildCard: Finish at 8-8 Alone or Just with the Rams

So much for the Superbowl right ESPN, the Panthers would need to win out, not going to happen, and have massive amounts of help in order to get in. See you next season, possibly with a freshly drafted/signed Quarterback for a little controversy.

Remaining Schedule: @ATL, @NO

St. Louis Rams

Likely Spot: 6-10
How to WildCard: Finish Alone in 8-8

The only way the Rams get in is if they sit alone at 8-8 due to their poor conference record, poor division record, and loss to Carolina. So despite their win against the feeble Raiders the Rams are all but done in the NFC Hunt.

Remaining Schedule: WAS, @MIN

Comments

Anonymous said…
I don't think the three way tie analysis for the Philly bye is correct. If the Saints, Eagles, and Seahawks all finished tied at 10-6, there are no common games among all three, so the first tiebreaker is conference record. The Saints and Eagles would have 9-3 records with the Seahawks following up with a minimum of 5 conference losses. Seattle would be eliminated and the Saints and Eagles go to a two way tiebreak. First tiebreak there is head to head. The Saints already beat the Eagles.

The New Orleans Saints holds the tiebreaker advantage over each of the 4 other possible division winners in the East and the West. So any ties should fall the Saints way.

SFIAH
Anonymous said…
I don't think the three way tie analysis for the Philly bye is correct. If the Saints, Eagles, and Seahawks all finished tied at 10-6, there are no common games among all three, so the first tiebreaker is conference record. The Saints and Eagles would have 9-3 records with the Seahawks following up with a minimum of 5 conference losses. Seattle would be eliminated and the Saints and Eagles go to a two way tiebreak. First tiebreak there is head to head. The Saints already beat the Eagles.

The New Orleans Saints holds the tiebreaker advantage over each of the 4 other possible division winners in the East and the West. So any ties should fall the Saints way.

SFIAH
Simon said…
Correct, forgot once one team is eliminated in the 3 way scenario that they revert back to mano a mano.

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