Currently there are only so many teams around the country who have a chance at running the table and somehow sneaking into the title game, I will give in each of the following what each team will need to get into the championship game.
1. Ohio State Buckeyes - For the Ohio State the answer is simple win and your in. The Buckeyes have been ranked the #1 team for the whole season and for good reason after their beatdown of ND in the Fiesta Bowl and the return of Troy Smith. The Buckeyes with a loss could back door into the title game as well.
Scenario #1: Beat Michigan
Scenario #2: Lose to Michigan in either classic game or due to poor officiating combined with USC, Florida losses and either unimpressive victories or losses by ND, Rutgers, Arkansas.
2. Michigan Wolverines - The same as Ohio State, win and your in however, the Wolverines have a better case for a rematch than do the Buckeyes for the reasons that the game will be played in Columbus giving the Buckeyes a definitive advantage as well as Michigan destroying ND in South Bend creating a scenario where it would be difficult for voters to move ND ahead of the Wolverines. However, I do think that the Rutgers will be more likely to jump ahead of Michigan than Ohio St. in the final polls and the Wolverines will most likely need them to lose in that scenario. Atleast with the Texas loss this past weekend one of the 3 Scenarios that would have ticked me off is out the door.
Scenario #1: Beat Ohio St.
Scenario #2: Lose to Ohio St. in either classic game or due to poor officiating combined with USC, Florida, and Rutgers losses and either unimpressive victories or a loss by Arkansas.
3. Southern California Trojans - The Trojans control their destiny almost as much as both the Wolverines and the Buckeyes. They sit ranked #3 in both polls with a dominating edge in the computers over SEC 1 loss teams and this will only improve from the defeating of two ranked teams while Florida takes on the likes of Western Carolina and a terrible FSU squad.
Scenario #1: Win Remainder of Games Convincingly
Scenario #2: Win Remainder of Games Period combined with a loss by Florida and Rutgers not blowing out WVU in Morgantown
4. Florida Gators - Unfortunately for the Gators despite their continuance of winning they have been doing so unimpressively and losing votes in the polls after every week. For this reason they will need to be dominant in both games against FSU and the SEC Championship game.
Scenario #1: Win Remaining Games in Dominating Fashion including a 1 loss Arkansas combined with unimpressive victories by Southern California.
Scenario #2: Win Remaining Games including a 1 loss Arkansas combined with a Southern Cal loss and Rutgers not dominating WVU in Morgantown.
Scenario #3: Win Remaining Games combined with losses by Rutgers & Southern Cal.
5. Arkansas Razorbacks - The Razorbacks can look back on that USC game that started the season and suggest things would have been completely different if McFadden had played, but it won't matter to voters. If USC runs the table there is no way the jump then in the polls. Because of that they have a worse situation overall than Florida, however one advantage they do have over Florida is they have an additional game to impress pollsters (LSU) which could distance themselves from Rutgers.
Scenario #1: USC Loss Combined with Dominating Wins over LSU and Florida
Scenario #2: USC and Rutgers Loss Combined with Winning the remainder of the schedule.
6. Rutgers Scarlet Knights - I think Rutgers situation is the most interesting of all and the most difficult to put a finger on. Going undefeated will certainly give the Scarlet Knight the right to complain but how will they buck the trend and convince pollsters that they are a superb team and not just a product of the perceived notion that the Big East is terrible. It has become apparent that Big East commissioner Mike Trangese will not, unlike SEC Coaches, bash other conferences which if done using valid points could increase Rutgers case. Pretty admirable that he nor Schiano has joined the Whine Brigade.
Scenario #1: Dominate WVU in Morgantown combined by combination of unimpressive wins by USC or ND, and SEC Champion. Possibly, a little Big East advertising might be needed.
Scenario #2: Run the table combined with USC loss to Cal, ND loss to USC, Arkansas loss to LSU, Florida loss to FSU or Arkansas.
Scenario #3: Run the table combined with unimpressive ND win at USC, and losses by both SEC team.
Scenario #4: Run the table combined with unimpressive ND win at USC, unimpressive SEC Champ and much politicing by Big East execs and Schiano.
7. Notre Dame Fighting Irish - The Irish are on the outside peering through a tiny opening due to two factors, the margin at which they got their asses handed to them, and the cake walk schedule they have run through for much of the season and the unimpressive fashion they have won many of these games. In a comparitive fashion with Wisconsin, right now there is no reason to believe they are any better than the Badgers. Why do the Irish have a shot when the Badgers have absolutely none, well thats simple they play USC in LA. However a simple win in the Coliseum will not be enough. In all of these scenarios it is essential that the Trojans defeat Cal this weekend and UCLA the final weekend, the wider the margin of both the better. In addition Arkansas winning the SEC favors the Irish much more than a victory by Florida due to the Arkansas crushed by USC ND beat USC factor that would plagued voters minds.
Scenario #1: Dominate the Trojans in LA combined with unimpressive win by Rutgers, Arkansas winning the SEC, and the OSU Michigan game being a blowout one way or the other.
Scenario #2: Losses by Rutgers, Florida, Arkansas combined with a victory over USC and The Game being a blowout.
Scenario #3: Beat the Trojans by about 50 and much politicing that ND is better than either SEC team and much improved since the Michigan game.
8. West Virginia Mountaineers - Sure they are very much on the outside peering in but there is a scenario where I could foresee the Mountaineers slipping into the title game.
WVU: What are the chances of a team like you and a Title Game like me... ending up together?
BCS: Well, that's pretty difficult to say.
WVU: Hit me with it! I've come a long way to see you, BCS. The least you can do is level with me. What are my chances?
BCS: Not good.
WVU: You mean, not good like one out of a hundred?
BCS: I'd say more like one out of a million.
[pause]
WVU: So you're telling me there's a chance.
Scenario #1: Dominate Rutgers at home and the remainder of the schedule combined with losses by USC to Cal, ND to USC, Arkansas to LSU, Florida to Arkansas, and a blowout in the Michigan OSU game.
Scenario #2: Dominate Rutgers at home and the remainder of the schedule combined with losses by Arkansas to LSU, Florida to Arkansas, a blowout in the Michigan OSU game and a controversial call deciding the ND USC game in ND's favor. A loss by USC to Cal or UCLA would improve this scenario.
9. Wake Forest Demon Decons - Sure you may say that they have absolutely positively no chance of making it to the title game, they sit too far back in the polls in every spot but what team has more of an opportunity to impress than the Demon Decons, they finish the season with 4 games against ranked teams (including the win over BC) and the whooping the laid down in Tallahassee. It's a long shot but there is still a possibility.
Scenario #1: Dominate VaTech, Maryland and GaTech (ACC Title Game) combined with losses by USC, ND, Rutgers, Florida, Arkansas and the WVU victory over Rutgers being a close game. In addition a blowout in the Game is most likely needed.
Scenario #2: Dominate remaining schedule combined with losses by USC, ND, Rutgers and a Florida loss to FSU decrediting the SEC completely. Once again a blowout in The Game will be needed.
More Updated Weeks Scenarios: 11/24, 11/27 includes all BCS games
1. Ohio State Buckeyes - For the Ohio State the answer is simple win and your in. The Buckeyes have been ranked the #1 team for the whole season and for good reason after their beatdown of ND in the Fiesta Bowl and the return of Troy Smith. The Buckeyes with a loss could back door into the title game as well.Scenario #1: Beat Michigan
Scenario #2: Lose to Michigan in either classic game or due to poor officiating combined with USC, Florida losses and either unimpressive victories or losses by ND, Rutgers, Arkansas.
2. Michigan Wolverines - The same as Ohio State, win and your in however, the Wolverines have a better case for a rematch than do the Buckeyes for the reasons that the game will be played in Columbus giving the Buckeyes a definitive advantage as well as Michigan destroying ND in South Bend creating a scenario where it would be difficult for voters to move ND ahead of the Wolverines. However, I do think that the Rutgers will be more likely to jump ahead of Michigan than Ohio St. in the final polls and the Wolverines will most likely need them to lose in that scenario. Atleast with the Texas loss this past weekend one of the 3 Scenarios that would have ticked me off is out the door.
Scenario #1: Beat Ohio St.
Scenario #2: Lose to Ohio St. in either classic game or due to poor officiating combined with USC, Florida, and Rutgers losses and either unimpressive victories or a loss by Arkansas.
3. Southern California Trojans - The Trojans control their destiny almost as much as both the Wolverines and the Buckeyes. They sit ranked #3 in both polls with a dominating edge in the computers over SEC 1 loss teams and this will only improve from the defeating of two ranked teams while Florida takes on the likes of Western Carolina and a terrible FSU squad.
Scenario #1: Win Remainder of Games Convincingly
Scenario #2: Win Remainder of Games Period combined with a loss by Florida and Rutgers not blowing out WVU in Morgantown
4. Florida Gators - Unfortunately for the Gators despite their continuance of winning they have been doing so unimpressively and losing votes in the polls after every week. For this reason they will need to be dominant in both games against FSU and the SEC Championship game.
Scenario #1: Win Remaining Games in Dominating Fashion including a 1 loss Arkansas combined with unimpressive victories by Southern California.
Scenario #2: Win Remaining Games including a 1 loss Arkansas combined with a Southern Cal loss and Rutgers not dominating WVU in Morgantown.
Scenario #3: Win Remaining Games combined with losses by Rutgers & Southern Cal.
5. Arkansas Razorbacks - The Razorbacks can look back on that USC game that started the season and suggest things would have been completely different if McFadden had played, but it won't matter to voters. If USC runs the table there is no way the jump then in the polls. Because of that they have a worse situation overall than Florida, however one advantage they do have over Florida is they have an additional game to impress pollsters (LSU) which could distance themselves from Rutgers.
Scenario #1: USC Loss Combined with Dominating Wins over LSU and Florida
Scenario #2: USC and Rutgers Loss Combined with Winning the remainder of the schedule.
6. Rutgers Scarlet Knights - I think Rutgers situation is the most interesting of all and the most difficult to put a finger on. Going undefeated will certainly give the Scarlet Knight the right to complain but how will they buck the trend and convince pollsters that they are a superb team and not just a product of the perceived notion that the Big East is terrible. It has become apparent that Big East commissioner Mike Trangese will not, unlike SEC Coaches, bash other conferences which if done using valid points could increase Rutgers case. Pretty admirable that he nor Schiano has joined the Whine Brigade.Scenario #1: Dominate WVU in Morgantown combined by combination of unimpressive wins by USC or ND, and SEC Champion. Possibly, a little Big East advertising might be needed.
Scenario #2: Run the table combined with USC loss to Cal, ND loss to USC, Arkansas loss to LSU, Florida loss to FSU or Arkansas.
Scenario #3: Run the table combined with unimpressive ND win at USC, and losses by both SEC team.
Scenario #4: Run the table combined with unimpressive ND win at USC, unimpressive SEC Champ and much politicing by Big East execs and Schiano.
7. Notre Dame Fighting Irish - The Irish are on the outside peering through a tiny opening due to two factors, the margin at which they got their asses handed to them, and the cake walk schedule they have run through for much of the season and the unimpressive fashion they have won many of these games. In a comparitive fashion with Wisconsin, right now there is no reason to believe they are any better than the Badgers. Why do the Irish have a shot when the Badgers have absolutely none, well thats simple they play USC in LA. However a simple win in the Coliseum will not be enough. In all of these scenarios it is essential that the Trojans defeat Cal this weekend and UCLA the final weekend, the wider the margin of both the better. In addition Arkansas winning the SEC favors the Irish much more than a victory by Florida due to the Arkansas crushed by USC ND beat USC factor that would plagued voters minds.
Scenario #1: Dominate the Trojans in LA combined with unimpressive win by Rutgers, Arkansas winning the SEC, and the OSU Michigan game being a blowout one way or the other.
Scenario #2: Losses by Rutgers, Florida, Arkansas combined with a victory over USC and The Game being a blowout.
Scenario #3: Beat the Trojans by about 50 and much politicing that ND is better than either SEC team and much improved since the Michigan game.
8. West Virginia Mountaineers - Sure they are very much on the outside peering in but there is a scenario where I could foresee the Mountaineers slipping into the title game.
WVU: What are the chances of a team like you and a Title Game like me... ending up together?
BCS: Well, that's pretty difficult to say.
WVU: Hit me with it! I've come a long way to see you, BCS. The least you can do is level with me. What are my chances?
BCS: Not good.
WVU: You mean, not good like one out of a hundred?
BCS: I'd say more like one out of a million.
[pause]
WVU: So you're telling me there's a chance.
Scenario #1: Dominate Rutgers at home and the remainder of the schedule combined with losses by USC to Cal, ND to USC, Arkansas to LSU, Florida to Arkansas, and a blowout in the Michigan OSU game.
Scenario #2: Dominate Rutgers at home and the remainder of the schedule combined with losses by Arkansas to LSU, Florida to Arkansas, a blowout in the Michigan OSU game and a controversial call deciding the ND USC game in ND's favor. A loss by USC to Cal or UCLA would improve this scenario.
9. Wake Forest Demon Decons - Sure you may say that they have absolutely positively no chance of making it to the title game, they sit too far back in the polls in every spot but what team has more of an opportunity to impress than the Demon Decons, they finish the season with 4 games against ranked teams (including the win over BC) and the whooping the laid down in Tallahassee. It's a long shot but there is still a possibility.
Scenario #1: Dominate VaTech, Maryland and GaTech (ACC Title Game) combined with losses by USC, ND, Rutgers, Florida, Arkansas and the WVU victory over Rutgers being a close game. In addition a blowout in the Game is most likely needed.
Scenario #2: Dominate remaining schedule combined with losses by USC, ND, Rutgers and a Florida loss to FSU decrediting the SEC completely. Once again a blowout in The Game will be needed.
More Updated Weeks Scenarios: 11/24, 11/27 includes all BCS games
Comments
1) USC to lose to Cal and then beat Notre Dame;
2) Arkansas to lose to LSU and then beat Florida;
3) West Virginia to beat Rutgers;
4) Wake Forest to not win the ACC with one loss;
5) Michigan to beat Ohio State convincingly.
This would give the Badgers a shot.