The QB strategy is 100% completely different between fantasy leagues with a different set of rules. If your league forces you to start only one QB per week than the difference between the upper 12 QBs in the league is not that much so you can wait it out into the 4th 5th or 6th round to get a QB. However, if your league has 2 QBs than you really need to make sure you do not end up with a QB that you project is going to be outside of the top 20 in the league. Because those are the guys you have to watch out being replaced and getting limited production from a QB spot, typically the best scoring spot, is certain to leave you out of the playoffs.
1. Peyton Manning - Late 1st Round - Alright Peyton Manning always puts up consistently fantastic numbers. He never gets hurt and weeks when he doesn't put up a touchdown are a shocker. But there are some issues, first how will the loss of Edge effect him, I personally think he will throw more and this will not hurt him that much more adversely as many think. Most of all fantasy football the regular season is a proving ground, and a grind and Peyton will help immensely in getting through this. But last season and quite possibly this season, the Colts have already clinched their weak division and Dungy decided to rest Peyton for the majority of the 2nd half. Well the last few weeks of the fantasy season are these weeks and if your 1st round pick isn't playing in those games, than good luck. So buyer beware, if you think the Colts are going to run away with their division then avoid, if you think the Colts are going to need to bring the A game in weeks 16 and 17 then snatch him up.
2. Tom Brady - Early to Mid 3rd - Now there is a big time period where I would go after a stellar RB and a stellar WR, but you know Tom is reliable and even without a standout wideout Tom is going to put up terrific numbers.
3. Carson Palmer - Early to Mid 3rd - The closer the season gets the more and more every fantasy player will know about the status of Carson's and others injuries, however right now I'll slot him at the 3rd spot with the assumption that he will play if only slightly worse than he would without the injury. Palmer has the skills and arsenal to be the #1 QB in the league and really only a few QBs have that possibility. Currently it appears he will be a go for week 1 and you should be a go in trying to snatch him up. Especially if he's available in the 3rd round.
4. Eli Manning - Early to Mid 4th - In my opinion Eli's numbers are only going to progressively get closer and closer to his big brothers. With the weapons he posseses, a top flight RB Tiki, a top 5 TE Shockey, a tall big wideout Plax, and finally a quick speedster wideout in Sinorice, Eli has everything he needs this year to put up huge numbers. He's no longer a gamble or a sleeper, he should put up top 5 QB numbers this season.
5. Matt Hasselbeck - Late 4th - Hasselbeck is the consistent low end first QB for fantasy teams. He's a very good option to pick up if you want to stack your team with Wideouts and Running Backs in the first rounds. He will consistantly throw a touchdown or two and over 200 yards. In addition the Seahawks schedule is pitiful. They still play the Cardinals and 49ers twice each.
6. Jake Delhomme - Late 4th - This year he has two receivers to throw the ball to. Which should mean significant improvement since last year they got absolutely positively nothing from every wideout not named Steve Smith. Delhomme and Hasselbeck are neck and neck and really an argument can go to either. I ranked Hasselbeck ahead due to Delhomme's harder division and schedule.
7. Marc Bulger - Early 5th - Bulger really has been a sleeper pick every season. He always puts up solid numbers but people never immediately pick him because people perceive him as not being that good. Well this year I'm not so sure Bulger is worth jumping on really early again, due to it being his first season without Martz. If the new coach really does want to make a conscious effort to run more than Bulger's stats will slump a bit more than in the past.
8. Donovan McNabb - Early 5th - Will put up solid numbers good enough to be a teams number 1 option but he's a lower end #1 and he will never put up the numbers he did in the TO years.
9. Ben Roethlisberger - Mid 5th - He's healthy so do not worry about that. Yes he lost Randle El but look at Randle El stats for 2005 he really did not do that much receiving. Big Ben is going to improve, the Steelers running game will be weaker and less dimensional and Ben will be shouldered with more of a burden. Ben will put up good numbers and will be a solid middle of the pack #1 QB.
10. Drew Brees - Late 5th - Another QB coming off an injury last season, with that lingering as a question mark. However, I very much like the prospects Brees has this season. He goes from having the best running back and best tight end but really no WR other than a wilting Keenan McCardell to a team that will have two pro bowl caliber running backs with Bush and Duece and two solid WR in Horn and Stallworth, I personally think Brees is going to have a very good season.
11. Duante Culpepper - Late 5th - Obviously Culpepper's knee is a little issue, but he has already suited up for the first preseason game. In addition this guy was a first round pick last year, he had one down season, granted he won't have Randy Moss this season but he will have a slight downgrade with Chris Chambers who is a very good wideout. It's doubtful that Culpepper will ever top his 2004 numbers but he should be a very good mid round selection.
12. Chris Simms - Mid 6th - I like Simms' potential this season. He has a solid RB in Cadillac, two good receiver targets with Galloway and Clayton and a burgeoning Tight End in Alex Smith. I think Simms could possibly be a top 10 fantasy QB at the end of the season, those maybe lofty expectations but I fully expect him to be at minimum a solid secondary QB for your squad.
13. Trent Green - Late 6th - Definately a low end top QB. His numbers went dramatically down last season and he still has no wideouts. In addition last season he seemingly lost touch with Tony Gonzalez. LJ is going to carry the TD production for this team and I personally think the Chiefs are one of the most overhyped teams this offseason. Personally, I'd try to pick up a #1 QB before I would settle for Green in that spot.
14. Jake Plummer - Late 6th - The job is his for this year atleast. Jake had a really good season last year and the Broncos receiving core has only improved this season with the addition of Javon Walker. If you can snatch him up as your #2 QB you've done yourself good.
15. Michael Vick - Mid to Late 7th - He's got no wideouts whatsoever and he still has yet to develop any touch on the ball. All he throws are missiles. Maybe he'll break out this year but he's always overvalued by someone in the draft. Don't draft him unless he's still there when you're looking for a #2 QB.
16. Brett Favre - Early 8th - Brett's on the decline as seen by his stats the past few seasons, in addition his weapons are really limited to Donald Driver and a big question mark at running back. I'd much rather take a chance with Chris Simms who has potential to break out than Brett Favre and what is probably going to be a mediocre season. Brett Favre is no better than a #2 QB option this season.
17. Drew Bledsoe - Early 8th - Bledsoe has TO this season so at worst he will put up slightly better numbers than he did last year which leaves him as a good option for your #2 QB if you have Drew as your #1 I think you're going to be in trouble.
18. Philip Rivers - Late 8th - He's got the #1 running back in the league. He's got the #1 Tight End in the League. That helps a lot. Philip Rivers was drafted in between Eli and Big Ben they both have been doing well. I think Rivers will fill in for Brees well and is worth a gamble as your #2 QB. Sure there's a risk, but just draft a steady 3rd guy if your so concerned.
19. Byron Leftwich - Late 8th - He's got to stay healthy. If he can do that then he will put up good numbers. He's got the arm and the toughness to lead the Jaguars deep into the playoffs but really hasn't been healthy for a full season. Be prepared to jump on Gerrard if you ever see him tweak anything.
20. Kurt Warner - Late 8th - Warner has several issues going into this season, first he is incredibly injury prone, second and this is if and only if Leinart stops holding out, he will have a back up QB who is ready to play and the organization should be eager to develop. However, the longer Leinart holds out the less likely Warner will be replaced this season, and if he plays everygame with those offensive weapons he will put up lofty numbers. If you draft Warner, attempt to draft Leinart in the last round for safety sake.
21. Steve McNair - Mid 9th - A change of scenery might do him well, and McNair certainly improves the values of Heap and Mason, but he's an injury waiting to happen he's always been and if he gets injured and your forced to pick up Kyle Boller to start then have fun getting a total of 6 points from your QB position.
22. Aaron Brooks - Mid 9th - This is a very big risk/reward selection. And if your a gambling man than Brooks could be a solid selection. He's put up big numbers in the past, in addition to big INT numbers, but never with Randy Moss in his arsenal. If he can learn to get the ball to Moss than he will be a very good 2nd QB option if not, he will be almost useless. Basically, if you draft Brooks try to get a reliable 3rd option.
23. David Carr - Mid to Late 9th - Eventually this guy is going to show why he was the #1 pick overall right? Eventually the Texans offensive line is going to give him more than 5 seconds to get a pass off right? This is that year right?
24. Mark Brunnel - Late 9th - I am not a big Brunnel fan but he does have the confidence of his coach, don't understand why, and he does have some good pass targets with Moss and Randle El, who's a bit overrated as a receiver. Basically he's not a bad #2 QB option but someone I will likely avoid due to my distaste of the elderly.
25. Chad Pennington - Mid 10th - I really want to tell you to draft Pennington, but I can't and I doubt I will draft him with the intention of starting him in my league. He could be a sleeper pick for a #2 QB, if he can stay healthy and return to form, however I'm overly pessimistic and can't say that I fully expect him to stay healthy the whole season.
26. Brad Johnson - Mid 10th - He won last games last year but he did nto put up stats and thats all fantasy GMs care about. He will start every game this season barring injury so he will be consistent points, just don't expect any 3 td or 300 yard games.
27. Rex Grossman - Mid to Late 10th - He's basically Chad Pennington injury prone with less track record a better arm, maybe more potential but he also has a much better back up in Griese than Chad does with Ramsey and the Bears are going to be a contender in the horrible NFC North, so Rex is probably going to be on a shorter leash than most and if he struggles Lovie will replace him.
28. Charlie Frye - Only if you need a #3 - You know what you're going to get from Charlie Frye, I certainly don't it seems that he has the job though so atleast he should be consistently mediocre and possibly a good fillin for someone's bye week. But don't tell me you have any idea what he's going to do. He comes in here because the others below have a less likely chance of keeping their jobs.
29. Billy Volek - Only if you need a #3 - He put up huge numbers when McNair is out, but the Titans didn't draft Vince Young because they thought Volek was their future. I think he has a chance to put up solid numbers, he still has Bennett who he made look like a phenom last year, but the Titans are going to be terrible this year and Vince could be getting some snaps by the double digit weeks.
30. Jon Kitna - Only if you need a #3 - He had a super year for the Bengals and than they decided to start Palmer over him, which was the right move obviously, even though I grilled Marvin Lewis for doing it, sorry Marvin thats why you're an NFL coach and I'm not. Kitna with the Lions? Eh no Chad Johnson no Rudi Johnson, plus a chance that Danny O gets some hurls. I don't trust Kitna this season.
31. Alex Smith - Desperation - He was miserable last year, I think he was worse than an empty roster spot certain weeks. If you draft him with an expectations I would hope you are either on the 49ers or related to Alex.
32. Losman or Holcomb - No Dice - Neither of these players should be drafted really, especially in single QB leagues. Who knows who's going to win the job and I don't think it matters, at best they are going to have only a few weeks of production. Pick up these guys when your QB has a bye week and if you didn't draft a solid backup.
A Few Backups to Watch Out For
Brian Griese - He had two good seasons in Tampa before going down due to injury and has a chance to get the Bears job if Grossman struggles.
Anthony Wright - He's not very good but if Palmer goes down in Cincy he's got enough weapons to make a contribution.
Patrick Ramsey - Depends on what week you think Pennington will last til.
1. Peyton Manning - Late 1st Round - Alright Peyton Manning always puts up consistently fantastic numbers. He never gets hurt and weeks when he doesn't put up a touchdown are a shocker. But there are some issues, first how will the loss of Edge effect him, I personally think he will throw more and this will not hurt him that much more adversely as many think. Most of all fantasy football the regular season is a proving ground, and a grind and Peyton will help immensely in getting through this. But last season and quite possibly this season, the Colts have already clinched their weak division and Dungy decided to rest Peyton for the majority of the 2nd half. Well the last few weeks of the fantasy season are these weeks and if your 1st round pick isn't playing in those games, than good luck. So buyer beware, if you think the Colts are going to run away with their division then avoid, if you think the Colts are going to need to bring the A game in weeks 16 and 17 then snatch him up.2. Tom Brady - Early to Mid 3rd - Now there is a big time period where I would go after a stellar RB and a stellar WR, but you know Tom is reliable and even without a standout wideout Tom is going to put up terrific numbers.
3. Carson Palmer - Early to Mid 3rd - The closer the season gets the more and more every fantasy player will know about the status of Carson's and others injuries, however right now I'll slot him at the 3rd spot with the assumption that he will play if only slightly worse than he would without the injury. Palmer has the skills and arsenal to be the #1 QB in the league and really only a few QBs have that possibility. Currently it appears he will be a go for week 1 and you should be a go in trying to snatch him up. Especially if he's available in the 3rd round.
4. Eli Manning - Early to Mid 4th - In my opinion Eli's numbers are only going to progressively get closer and closer to his big brothers. With the weapons he posseses, a top flight RB Tiki, a top 5 TE Shockey, a tall big wideout Plax, and finally a quick speedster wideout in Sinorice, Eli has everything he needs this year to put up huge numbers. He's no longer a gamble or a sleeper, he should put up top 5 QB numbers this season.
5. Matt Hasselbeck - Late 4th - Hasselbeck is the consistent low end first QB for fantasy teams. He's a very good option to pick up if you want to stack your team with Wideouts and Running Backs in the first rounds. He will consistantly throw a touchdown or two and over 200 yards. In addition the Seahawks schedule is pitiful. They still play the Cardinals and 49ers twice each.
6. Jake Delhomme - Late 4th - This year he has two receivers to throw the ball to. Which should mean significant improvement since last year they got absolutely positively nothing from every wideout not named Steve Smith. Delhomme and Hasselbeck are neck and neck and really an argument can go to either. I ranked Hasselbeck ahead due to Delhomme's harder division and schedule.
7. Marc Bulger - Early 5th - Bulger really has been a sleeper pick every season. He always puts up solid numbers but people never immediately pick him because people perceive him as not being that good. Well this year I'm not so sure Bulger is worth jumping on really early again, due to it being his first season without Martz. If the new coach really does want to make a conscious effort to run more than Bulger's stats will slump a bit more than in the past.
8. Donovan McNabb - Early 5th - Will put up solid numbers good enough to be a teams number 1 option but he's a lower end #1 and he will never put up the numbers he did in the TO years.
9. Ben Roethlisberger - Mid 5th - He's healthy so do not worry about that. Yes he lost Randle El but look at Randle El stats for 2005 he really did not do that much receiving. Big Ben is going to improve, the Steelers running game will be weaker and less dimensional and Ben will be shouldered with more of a burden. Ben will put up good numbers and will be a solid middle of the pack #1 QB.
10. Drew Brees - Late 5th - Another QB coming off an injury last season, with that lingering as a question mark. However, I very much like the prospects Brees has this season. He goes from having the best running back and best tight end but really no WR other than a wilting Keenan McCardell to a team that will have two pro bowl caliber running backs with Bush and Duece and two solid WR in Horn and Stallworth, I personally think Brees is going to have a very good season.
11. Duante Culpepper - Late 5th - Obviously Culpepper's knee is a little issue, but he has already suited up for the first preseason game. In addition this guy was a first round pick last year, he had one down season, granted he won't have Randy Moss this season but he will have a slight downgrade with Chris Chambers who is a very good wideout. It's doubtful that Culpepper will ever top his 2004 numbers but he should be a very good mid round selection.12. Chris Simms - Mid 6th - I like Simms' potential this season. He has a solid RB in Cadillac, two good receiver targets with Galloway and Clayton and a burgeoning Tight End in Alex Smith. I think Simms could possibly be a top 10 fantasy QB at the end of the season, those maybe lofty expectations but I fully expect him to be at minimum a solid secondary QB for your squad.
13. Trent Green - Late 6th - Definately a low end top QB. His numbers went dramatically down last season and he still has no wideouts. In addition last season he seemingly lost touch with Tony Gonzalez. LJ is going to carry the TD production for this team and I personally think the Chiefs are one of the most overhyped teams this offseason. Personally, I'd try to pick up a #1 QB before I would settle for Green in that spot.
14. Jake Plummer - Late 6th - The job is his for this year atleast. Jake had a really good season last year and the Broncos receiving core has only improved this season with the addition of Javon Walker. If you can snatch him up as your #2 QB you've done yourself good.
15. Michael Vick - Mid to Late 7th - He's got no wideouts whatsoever and he still has yet to develop any touch on the ball. All he throws are missiles. Maybe he'll break out this year but he's always overvalued by someone in the draft. Don't draft him unless he's still there when you're looking for a #2 QB.
16. Brett Favre - Early 8th - Brett's on the decline as seen by his stats the past few seasons, in addition his weapons are really limited to Donald Driver and a big question mark at running back. I'd much rather take a chance with Chris Simms who has potential to break out than Brett Favre and what is probably going to be a mediocre season. Brett Favre is no better than a #2 QB option this season.
17. Drew Bledsoe - Early 8th - Bledsoe has TO this season so at worst he will put up slightly better numbers than he did last year which leaves him as a good option for your #2 QB if you have Drew as your #1 I think you're going to be in trouble.
18. Philip Rivers - Late 8th - He's got the #1 running back in the league. He's got the #1 Tight End in the League. That helps a lot. Philip Rivers was drafted in between Eli and Big Ben they both have been doing well. I think Rivers will fill in for Brees well and is worth a gamble as your #2 QB. Sure there's a risk, but just draft a steady 3rd guy if your so concerned.19. Byron Leftwich - Late 8th - He's got to stay healthy. If he can do that then he will put up good numbers. He's got the arm and the toughness to lead the Jaguars deep into the playoffs but really hasn't been healthy for a full season. Be prepared to jump on Gerrard if you ever see him tweak anything.
20. Kurt Warner - Late 8th - Warner has several issues going into this season, first he is incredibly injury prone, second and this is if and only if Leinart stops holding out, he will have a back up QB who is ready to play and the organization should be eager to develop. However, the longer Leinart holds out the less likely Warner will be replaced this season, and if he plays everygame with those offensive weapons he will put up lofty numbers. If you draft Warner, attempt to draft Leinart in the last round for safety sake.
21. Steve McNair - Mid 9th - A change of scenery might do him well, and McNair certainly improves the values of Heap and Mason, but he's an injury waiting to happen he's always been and if he gets injured and your forced to pick up Kyle Boller to start then have fun getting a total of 6 points from your QB position.
22. Aaron Brooks - Mid 9th - This is a very big risk/reward selection. And if your a gambling man than Brooks could be a solid selection. He's put up big numbers in the past, in addition to big INT numbers, but never with Randy Moss in his arsenal. If he can learn to get the ball to Moss than he will be a very good 2nd QB option if not, he will be almost useless. Basically, if you draft Brooks try to get a reliable 3rd option.
23. David Carr - Mid to Late 9th - Eventually this guy is going to show why he was the #1 pick overall right? Eventually the Texans offensive line is going to give him more than 5 seconds to get a pass off right? This is that year right?
24. Mark Brunnel - Late 9th - I am not a big Brunnel fan but he does have the confidence of his coach, don't understand why, and he does have some good pass targets with Moss and Randle El, who's a bit overrated as a receiver. Basically he's not a bad #2 QB option but someone I will likely avoid due to my distaste of the elderly.
25. Chad Pennington - Mid 10th - I really want to tell you to draft Pennington, but I can't and I doubt I will draft him with the intention of starting him in my league. He could be a sleeper pick for a #2 QB, if he can stay healthy and return to form, however I'm overly pessimistic and can't say that I fully expect him to stay healthy the whole season.26. Brad Johnson - Mid 10th - He won last games last year but he did nto put up stats and thats all fantasy GMs care about. He will start every game this season barring injury so he will be consistent points, just don't expect any 3 td or 300 yard games.
27. Rex Grossman - Mid to Late 10th - He's basically Chad Pennington injury prone with less track record a better arm, maybe more potential but he also has a much better back up in Griese than Chad does with Ramsey and the Bears are going to be a contender in the horrible NFC North, so Rex is probably going to be on a shorter leash than most and if he struggles Lovie will replace him.
28. Charlie Frye - Only if you need a #3 - You know what you're going to get from Charlie Frye, I certainly don't it seems that he has the job though so atleast he should be consistently mediocre and possibly a good fillin for someone's bye week. But don't tell me you have any idea what he's going to do. He comes in here because the others below have a less likely chance of keeping their jobs.
29. Billy Volek - Only if you need a #3 - He put up huge numbers when McNair is out, but the Titans didn't draft Vince Young because they thought Volek was their future. I think he has a chance to put up solid numbers, he still has Bennett who he made look like a phenom last year, but the Titans are going to be terrible this year and Vince could be getting some snaps by the double digit weeks.
30. Jon Kitna - Only if you need a #3 - He had a super year for the Bengals and than they decided to start Palmer over him, which was the right move obviously, even though I grilled Marvin Lewis for doing it, sorry Marvin thats why you're an NFL coach and I'm not. Kitna with the Lions? Eh no Chad Johnson no Rudi Johnson, plus a chance that Danny O gets some hurls. I don't trust Kitna this season.
31. Alex Smith - Desperation - He was miserable last year, I think he was worse than an empty roster spot certain weeks. If you draft him with an expectations I would hope you are either on the 49ers or related to Alex.
32. Losman or Holcomb - No Dice - Neither of these players should be drafted really, especially in single QB leagues. Who knows who's going to win the job and I don't think it matters, at best they are going to have only a few weeks of production. Pick up these guys when your QB has a bye week and if you didn't draft a solid backup.
A Few Backups to Watch Out For
Brian Griese - He had two good seasons in Tampa before going down due to injury and has a chance to get the Bears job if Grossman struggles.
Anthony Wright - He's not very good but if Palmer goes down in Cincy he's got enough weapons to make a contribution.
Patrick Ramsey - Depends on what week you think Pennington will last til.
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