With the NBA's hype machine rolling these past few months about who would wind up with Oden and Durant and how teams were positioning themselves by tanking the end of the season and side bar stories like what if the Bulls land Oden through the Knicks pick; it's evident that the Lottery is great for the NBA. Would it have the same effect in the NFL and would it be worth it? Tanking the Season
Because the NFL season is such a smaller sample size it's much more difficult at the middle of the season to justify throwing it in the tank job. The Celtics and Grizzlies for instance by mid year had long losing streaks and were without their star player and were effectively out of the race. Unless you are 2-6 or below at the midway point of the NFL season, you still have a fighting shot. Granted you will need to get incredibly hot down the stretch but you won't throw it in dump mode yet.
Impact of Top Picks
The impact of the top picks in NBA is typically much larger than that of the NFL. Certainly, in the NFL you would much rather be in the top 3 than #8 but the difference between slots is not nearly as different as it is in the NBA. If you land Oden or Durant this season, or LBJ or Carmelo in past years that completely sets up your franchise for the foreseeable future. As opposed to garnering the #9 or #10 pick which could turn out to be a superb player like Dirk, or Pierce, or could end up being a massive bust. The talent differences and level of uncertainty in the NBA is much larger.
Overall Draft Impact
The NFL draft overall is much more important than the NBA draft. The number of players who have made a tremendous contribution in the NFL that were drafted in the 2nd round or above is much larger than that of the NBA. In the NBA you need you're first round picks to succeed, to be a successful franchise. In the NFL you can counterbalance a few 1st round busts, if you make tremendous value picks in the latter rounds, ala Tom Brady. Roster Size and Depth
The overall roster size in the NFL plays a big part in this equation. One player added to a team, never makes an entire franchise. If you have a Peyton Manning but no offensive line or Marvin Harrison, the Colts would not be any good. Meanwhile the Cavs made the Eastern Conference finals on the back of Lebron and Lebron alone. In the NFL it's much more important to have a balanced squad than in the NBA where 2 superstars and a team of role players can bring a title.
Injury Factor
In the Celtics case this season, when Paul Pierce went down they lost just about every game because he was the entire team. Meanwhile if a key player goes down for a football team, sure they will be significantly effected, especially if it's the QB, but not nearly as much, as this echoes the importance of depth. Just look at how well the Eagles performed with Jeff Garcia running the show last year. Good teams will bounce back much better from a star injury in football than basketball. Even the defending champion Heat stunk much of this season because they had two injuries, which just happened to be Shaq and D Wade. Juice to the Probowl
The NBA uses the draft lottery, not only to try to arrange more fairness in the league and to not reward teams that tank the end of the season, but also as a hype machine. The Draft lottery will get almost as much coverage this year as the actual NBA draft. While the NFL does not necessarily need any extra hype, especially for its draft, the one thing that could use some life is the Pro bowl. It's always terrible, and if they threw a Draft lottery in at half time it could certainly bring in a larger audience.Conclusion
The NFL doesn't need a draft lottery, it's overall draft is better and more important than the NBAs. Teams are less likely to tank to get the first pick, because it does not guarantee your team future success. The NFL does not need the hype, even for it's lame Pro Bowl, and a draft lottery would just seem like a cry for more attention.
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