The biggest mystery of both this season in the real and fantasy worlds will be the production of Daisuke Matsuzaka. He comes over as the most heralded Japanese pitcher ever. What should Red Sox fans expect? An Ace, a middle of the pack starter, what's the worst case scenario? For fantasy owners around the country, when do you pounce on Matsuzaka, is he going to be a keeper for years? Much of this is guess work, but lets try to wade through and come to a moderate conclusion.
Let's first look at three prior Japanese endeavors from a range of spectrums. Hideo Nomo was good for a while, Kaz Ishii was moderately succesful for a awhile and Hideki Irabu pretty much sucked.
Nomo's First Full Season: 13-6, 2.54 era, 236 Ks, 1.056 WHIP, Rookie of the Year
Ishii's First Full Season: 14-10, 4.27 era, 143 Ks, 1.578 WHIP
Irabu's First Full Season: 13-9, 4.06 era, 173 IP, 126 Ks, 1.26 WHIP
Noticeably all three pitchers had moderate to great success in their first season in the bigs. And arguably they had their best seasons their opening campaign. So why is this? Well these pitchers came over to America in their prime, and ready to pitch in the big leagues. In addition their first season in the bigs they had the advantage over hitters that had never seen them before and had no idea what their tendencies were. Once hitters were able to get a read on each pitcher, and once they grew out of their decline all three had measurably less success.
So what does Matsuzaka have in common with these three pitchers. Well first is the age. Nomo pitched his first season at 26, both Irabu and Ishii made their starts at 28. Matsuzaka will pitch this season at age 26. He is in his prime, just like the others. Additionally he has the same advantages of the prior three in regards to hitters not establishing his tendencies. Perhaps its less important in modern baseball's video watching ability, but it is still much different facing the pitcher than watching film.
So where does Matsuzaka fit in this spectrum? He would certainly project out better than Ishii and Irabu given his hype and past success in both the World Baseball Classic and the Bronze Medal in the 2004 Olympic mirror Nomo. Here's a difference between the two, Matsuzaka jumps into a more pressure packed situation in a better league but concurrently on a better team. Thus a 2.54 ERA would seem like a very large stretch however only 13 wins seem like a little underestimate. Therefore my predictions are:
Matsuzaka's First Full Season: 16-8, 3.43 era, 198 IP, 173 Ks, 1.18 WHIP
So if those are his numbers where does that land him. Basically a low end #1 starter to a high end #2 starter depending on your team. Similar numbers to a John Lackey, CC Sabathia, Mike Mussina. But not one of the Roy Oswalt, Chris Carpenter, Roy Halladays of the world. And thus draft him accordingly, don't over estimate what he is going to do and expect those Oswalt like numbers, if someone else wants to let them. And when it gets to the time of the draft where Sabathia and Lackey start to come off the board and you want to take a bigger Risk/Reward guy than snatch up Matsuzaka. But be forewarned neither you nor I have any real idea what he's going to be this season.
Let's first look at three prior Japanese endeavors from a range of spectrums. Hideo Nomo was good for a while, Kaz Ishii was moderately succesful for a awhile and Hideki Irabu pretty much sucked.
Nomo's First Full Season: 13-6, 2.54 era, 236 Ks, 1.056 WHIP, Rookie of the Year
Ishii's First Full Season: 14-10, 4.27 era, 143 Ks, 1.578 WHIP
Irabu's First Full Season: 13-9, 4.06 era, 173 IP, 126 Ks, 1.26 WHIP
Noticeably all three pitchers had moderate to great success in their first season in the bigs. And arguably they had their best seasons their opening campaign. So why is this? Well these pitchers came over to America in their prime, and ready to pitch in the big leagues. In addition their first season in the bigs they had the advantage over hitters that had never seen them before and had no idea what their tendencies were. Once hitters were able to get a read on each pitcher, and once they grew out of their decline all three had measurably less success.So what does Matsuzaka have in common with these three pitchers. Well first is the age. Nomo pitched his first season at 26, both Irabu and Ishii made their starts at 28. Matsuzaka will pitch this season at age 26. He is in his prime, just like the others. Additionally he has the same advantages of the prior three in regards to hitters not establishing his tendencies. Perhaps its less important in modern baseball's video watching ability, but it is still much different facing the pitcher than watching film.
So where does Matsuzaka fit in this spectrum? He would certainly project out better than Ishii and Irabu given his hype and past success in both the World Baseball Classic and the Bronze Medal in the 2004 Olympic mirror Nomo. Here's a difference between the two, Matsuzaka jumps into a more pressure packed situation in a better league but concurrently on a better team. Thus a 2.54 ERA would seem like a very large stretch however only 13 wins seem like a little underestimate. Therefore my predictions are:
Matsuzaka's First Full Season: 16-8, 3.43 era, 198 IP, 173 Ks, 1.18 WHIP
So if those are his numbers where does that land him. Basically a low end #1 starter to a high end #2 starter depending on your team. Similar numbers to a John Lackey, CC Sabathia, Mike Mussina. But not one of the Roy Oswalt, Chris Carpenter, Roy Halladays of the world. And thus draft him accordingly, don't over estimate what he is going to do and expect those Oswalt like numbers, if someone else wants to let them. And when it gets to the time of the draft where Sabathia and Lackey start to come off the board and you want to take a bigger Risk/Reward guy than snatch up Matsuzaka. But be forewarned neither you nor I have any real idea what he's going to be this season.
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