And to the AL East, the division that truly matters. This year might be the deepest that the division has been in years. Obviously the Sox and Yanks haven't left, but the Blue Jays should be dangerous again this year, and even the Orioles and Devil Rays have potential. One could put together a good argument that this division is actually better than the AL Central and will be the best division in baseball at years end.
1. New York Yankees
Everyone is making such a big deal about the Yankees back end of the rotation, but truth be that is being way overblown. When Wang gets back they'll have three top flight pitcher at the top of the rotation, the wonderful Carl Pavano, and Japanese Ted Lilly. That is more than enough to win a lot of games.
Key Player: Mariano Rivera, Mo is always the most important player on the Yankees. You think Proctor or Farnsworth would be able to perform in the closers role for even a fraction of a second? Give me a break.
Player to Eye: Melky Cabrera, the Melkman was terrific in his callup last year after everyone went down, and was truly a savior to keep the Yankees on track. Now with Giambi being to fat to play first base and the outfield crowded with Damon, Matsui and Abreu, where will his at bats come from. Torre will need to get this kid some at bats, because he's the perfect fit for the end of the lineup.
Record Prediction: 95 - 71
2. Boston Red Sox
After a collapse to end the 2006 season the Red Sox will bounce back fully this season. They've got potentially three aces at the top of their rotation and of course Manny and Papi in the middle of the lineup. The question not being asked, that is all the noise in Yankees talks, is who the heck is going to be their 5th start now that Paps was put back in the pen. You really think Tavarez is an option?
Key Player: Manny Ramirez, Manny is the most important player on the Red Sox. He's the best right handed hitter in the American league and perhaps its most consistent. He goes down or loses interest like last year and the Red Sox will tank just like last year. My guess is once he's done selling grills for his buddy in spring training he will be the typical Manny, .320 35 130 100.
Player to Eye: Daisuke Matsuzaka, who's not going to watch Dice-K. What will his stats be? My estimates were 16-8, 3.43 era, 198 IP, 173 Ks, 1.18 WHIP but who knows that could be completely lowballing it. Hell in my keeper draft I am planning on using my first round pick on him if he falls to me, aka over guys like Schmidt, Harang and Smoltz.
Record Prediction:92-70
3. Toronto Blue Jays
Everyone talks about the Blue Jays threatening the Yanks and Sox this season. I just am not seeing them being that close late in the season, their top two pitchers are massive injury risks and so is their DH. Their closer is coming off the best season of his career and could fall back a bit and so is their best hitter Vernon Wells. The Red Sox and Yanks will remain the class of the AL East this season.
Key Player: Roy Halladay, you can make a case that Roy Halladay is the most important pitcher to his team in all of baseball. He's the ace of the staff for a team that will need to fight over the Yanks and the Sox, and he just might be the most fragile of all big time pitchers. He goes down, Blue Jays done, he stays healthy, they got a chance.
Player to Eye: Frank Thomas, will the oft injured Big Hurt stay healthy two seasons in a row. Is that possible for such an old and large man? If he can stay healthy will his numbers mirror last years? He will be DHing in a better hitters stadium. But will the running, limited running more like casual jogging, on the turf blow out a knee or a hammy or a groin.
Record Prediction:84-78
4. Baltimore Orioles
I think the Orioles actually have potential to be pretty decent this season. Their rotation is filled with a lot of potential and Trashbag. Their closer is young and could get better. Problem is they play in the AL East.
Key Player: Nick Markakis, they have him hitting 3rd to start the season meaning they are expecting big things out of the sophomore and they will absolutely need big things from him.
Player to Eye: Adam Loewen, a huge lefty under the tutilage of the rocker. I bit on Daniel Cabrera and Erik Bedard's potential last season to get burned by one and enjoy glory from the other. Loewen is my sleeper last pick this season, he's throwing the ball hard and well in spring and a 6-6 lefty is going to be tough on hitters. He's got close to a K per inning and a ton of potential.
Record Prediction: 75-87
5. Tampa Bay Devil Rays
The Devil Rays actually have potential this year to be a pretty decent team, well minus the fact that their pitching blows. In most years the Devil Rays are fodder to boost the Yanks or Sox record and occasionally will pester one of the teams during the season. This year especially late in the season when some of their prospects like Delmon Young get into the groove, they will be a mosquito that the top of the division won't enjoy playing.
Key Player: Scott Kazmir, he's really the only pitcher they've got. And thus he's default most important player on their roster. With a lineup full of young top prospects the Devil Rays have the potential to click midseason with the bats, but if Kazmir goes down they'll find themselves typically in the basement of the AL East.
Player to Eye: B.J. Upton, one of the most talked about prospects for years has no position to call home this season. How many at bats will he get? Where will those at bats come from? 3B, 2B, OF?
Record Prediction:67-95
*Note: These Record Predictions probably don't add up perfectly, and by probably I mean 99.99999% likely they don't.
1. New York Yankees
Everyone is making such a big deal about the Yankees back end of the rotation, but truth be that is being way overblown. When Wang gets back they'll have three top flight pitcher at the top of the rotation, the wonderful Carl Pavano, and Japanese Ted Lilly. That is more than enough to win a lot of games.Key Player: Mariano Rivera, Mo is always the most important player on the Yankees. You think Proctor or Farnsworth would be able to perform in the closers role for even a fraction of a second? Give me a break.
Player to Eye: Melky Cabrera, the Melkman was terrific in his callup last year after everyone went down, and was truly a savior to keep the Yankees on track. Now with Giambi being to fat to play first base and the outfield crowded with Damon, Matsui and Abreu, where will his at bats come from. Torre will need to get this kid some at bats, because he's the perfect fit for the end of the lineup.
Record Prediction: 95 - 71
2. Boston Red Sox
After a collapse to end the 2006 season the Red Sox will bounce back fully this season. They've got potentially three aces at the top of their rotation and of course Manny and Papi in the middle of the lineup. The question not being asked, that is all the noise in Yankees talks, is who the heck is going to be their 5th start now that Paps was put back in the pen. You really think Tavarez is an option?Key Player: Manny Ramirez, Manny is the most important player on the Red Sox. He's the best right handed hitter in the American league and perhaps its most consistent. He goes down or loses interest like last year and the Red Sox will tank just like last year. My guess is once he's done selling grills for his buddy in spring training he will be the typical Manny, .320 35 130 100.
Player to Eye: Daisuke Matsuzaka, who's not going to watch Dice-K. What will his stats be? My estimates were 16-8, 3.43 era, 198 IP, 173 Ks, 1.18 WHIP but who knows that could be completely lowballing it. Hell in my keeper draft I am planning on using my first round pick on him if he falls to me, aka over guys like Schmidt, Harang and Smoltz.
Record Prediction:92-70
3. Toronto Blue Jays
Everyone talks about the Blue Jays threatening the Yanks and Sox this season. I just am not seeing them being that close late in the season, their top two pitchers are massive injury risks and so is their DH. Their closer is coming off the best season of his career and could fall back a bit and so is their best hitter Vernon Wells. The Red Sox and Yanks will remain the class of the AL East this season.Key Player: Roy Halladay, you can make a case that Roy Halladay is the most important pitcher to his team in all of baseball. He's the ace of the staff for a team that will need to fight over the Yanks and the Sox, and he just might be the most fragile of all big time pitchers. He goes down, Blue Jays done, he stays healthy, they got a chance.
Player to Eye: Frank Thomas, will the oft injured Big Hurt stay healthy two seasons in a row. Is that possible for such an old and large man? If he can stay healthy will his numbers mirror last years? He will be DHing in a better hitters stadium. But will the running, limited running more like casual jogging, on the turf blow out a knee or a hammy or a groin.
Record Prediction:84-78
4. Baltimore Orioles
I think the Orioles actually have potential to be pretty decent this season. Their rotation is filled with a lot of potential and Trashbag. Their closer is young and could get better. Problem is they play in the AL East.Key Player: Nick Markakis, they have him hitting 3rd to start the season meaning they are expecting big things out of the sophomore and they will absolutely need big things from him.
Player to Eye: Adam Loewen, a huge lefty under the tutilage of the rocker. I bit on Daniel Cabrera and Erik Bedard's potential last season to get burned by one and enjoy glory from the other. Loewen is my sleeper last pick this season, he's throwing the ball hard and well in spring and a 6-6 lefty is going to be tough on hitters. He's got close to a K per inning and a ton of potential.
Record Prediction: 75-87
5. Tampa Bay Devil Rays
The Devil Rays actually have potential this year to be a pretty decent team, well minus the fact that their pitching blows. In most years the Devil Rays are fodder to boost the Yanks or Sox record and occasionally will pester one of the teams during the season. This year especially late in the season when some of their prospects like Delmon Young get into the groove, they will be a mosquito that the top of the division won't enjoy playing.Key Player: Scott Kazmir, he's really the only pitcher they've got. And thus he's default most important player on their roster. With a lineup full of young top prospects the Devil Rays have the potential to click midseason with the bats, but if Kazmir goes down they'll find themselves typically in the basement of the AL East.
Player to Eye: B.J. Upton, one of the most talked about prospects for years has no position to call home this season. How many at bats will he get? Where will those at bats come from? 3B, 2B, OF?
Record Prediction:67-95
*Note: These Record Predictions probably don't add up perfectly, and by probably I mean 99.99999% likely they don't.
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