Fantasy Toss Up: Jacoby Ellsbury vs. Shane Victorino

So where do you want to get your speed from this year? Option 1 is Mr. Ellsbury, speed demon and heart throb of Boston. Option 2 is the Flyin' Hawaiin, spark plug to the World Champs.

The Fantasy Rankings

CBS ranks Ellsbury at #52 and Victorino at #53.
Yahoo Big Board ranks Ellsbury at #44 and Victorino at #48.
ESPN ranks Ellsbury at #62 and Victorino at #82.

All the rankings favor Ellsbury but by the slightest of margins.

Projections

Jacoby Ellsbury: .302, 9 Home Runs, 53 RBI, 100 Runs, 52 Stolen Bases
Shane Victorino: .286, 13 Home Runs, 54 RBI, 88 Runs, 26 Stolen Bases

If you're going to take the projections to heart than it isn't even a close call. Victorino will get you more home runs, but loses everywhere else and gets slaughtered in steals.

Surrounding Lineup

Both players have terrific lineups surrounding them. The Phillies have Rollins, Utley, and Howard plus a little Ibanez and Werth on the side. The Red Sox have Ortiz, Youk, Pedroia, plus a little Bay and Lowell on the side. Neither player if put in the right spot will hurt for RBI or Run scored opportunities.

Question Marks

The biggest question marks for both players relative fantasy values is what spot in the order will they hit? If Victorino is thrust back into the two hole surrounded by Rollins, Utley, and Howard than he'll get fastball after fastball. But if they move him down in the lineup and hit Werth at 6th, than where will his runs scored plummet to?

Ellsbury has the same question. With Coco gone he'll play everyday, which eliminates that questionmark, but will he garner the lead off spot?

The Verdict

I'm not convinced of two things in the projections. First I'm not 100% sold on Ellsbury hitting 9 homers again, but who really cares. Secondly, I don't see why Victorino would drop from 36 and 37 steals the past two seasons to 26. In the end though Ellsbury is the guy, he'll be the category killer. Even if Victorino plumps up his steals total to 40, he'll still fall short of Ellsbury's totals by at least 10 if not more. Additionally, I think Ellsbury is more of a lock to leadoff than Victorino is to hit 2 given that Charles in Charge batted Werth there for much of the postseason run. So draft your Ellsbury and enjoy your dominance in steals.

Numbers On Steroids: Mickey Mantle

Numbers on Steroids is a look at baseball players during the 90s to see if anything screams out at you. This week it's throwing a curve ball and looking at All Time Great Yankees. Players that we know did not take steroids to see if this gives a defense to any of the players 'convicted' by Numbers on Steroids. Time to look at my dad's favorite athlete of all time, Mickey Mantle. Averages Say: What's with the mysterious dip at 27 and then the uptick? At Bats Per Home Run Says: That's a mighty jump from 22 to 24 Explaining As If It Was the 90s If you take a look at the numbers there are two time frames which in the 1990s would be questioned. First would be the incredible leap he took from his first year in the big leagues to his first MVP season in 1956. His batting average jumped 50 points. His slugging percentage jumped 90 points and he hit 15 more homers than his previous high. This wouldn't merrit a conviction nowadays though because the young age he...

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Guest Post: Thoughts on Sabathia Signing

I asked Grutt what his thoughts were on the Sabathia signing and I thought his response pretty much nailed it. So here it is. I don’t know. Every year I get a little more disenchanted with baseball. Yea, it’s great we signed the top pitching free agent. But we were supposed to. No team was even in the ballpark of the Yankees offer yet they still needed to jump from the already ridiculous price of $140 million to $160 million to close the deal. Now I hear we are going to sign more pitchers who will also get large contracts and the position player gaps are still glaring. Each new, large contract just adds to the feeling that the Yanks are supposed to win it all. “I think we have a good chance this year.” That is a lost feeling. If they don’t win I’ll wonder why, like there has to be some other reason besides that it’s a sport you can never predict how things will work out and some years just aren’t yours to be won. If they win I will be pleasantly smug. It gets a little more...

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