Break Work: Checking In On Those Pesky Pre-Season Predictions

Monday, July 14, 2008

So to do a quick sum up of my predictions from the Spring, which of course are unsurprisingly pitiful essentially in the AL I have two teams pace close to accurate. The Red Sox and the Royals are both on a pace to win about 1 more game than I predicted. In the NL I was close on the Brewers, Phillies and Astros who I are on pace to win basically the amount that I specified. Other than those 4 teams it's a shit show.

The absolute biggest disaster is of course Seattle who at their pace might be able to play 2 full seasons before they reach 92 wins. The White Sox, Rays, Twins and As I all expected to be under .500 and currently they hold the 3rd-6th best records in the AL. Detroit's first month doomed them from what I thought would end up being the best record in the league. And finally Cleveland is surprisingly miserable while Baltimore is surprisingly not completely miserable.

In the NL the Cardinals have shocked with the 2nd best record in the league while the Padres and Rockies have both been ridiculously bad. Meanwhile I was actually close to predicting the Reds and Nats coming with in 6 games of their current pace.

All in all I did a much much better job in the NL, and by much better I mean not the complete disaster that was my AL predictions. If you can follow the below table the first column is what I predicted the teams record to rank in their league, the 2nd is what they currently rank, the third is how many wins I predicted, the 4th is their current pace to finish at, and finally the last is the difference between the predicted and the pace.

P C Team Wins (Pred) Wins (Pace) Difference
6 1 L.A. Angels 90 97.2 -7.2
2 2 Boston 94 95.19587629 -1.195876289
9 3 Tampa Bay 79 94.78723404 -15.78723404
8 4 Chi. White Sox 80 93.06382979 -13.06382979
10 5 Minnesota 73 90.37894737 -17.37894737
13 6 Oakland 68 86.96842105 -18.96842105
3 7 N.Y. Yankees 93 85.26315789 7.736842105
12 8 Texas 70 84.375 -14.375
1 9 Detroit 96 81 15
7 10 Toronto 82 80.14736842 1.852631579
14 11 Baltimore 59 78.38709677 -19.38709677
11 12 Kansas City 71 72.5625 -1.5625
4 13 Cleveland 91 70.65957447 20.34042553
5 14 Seattle 91 63.09473684 27.90526316
Team Wins (P) Wins (Pace) Difference
2 1 Chi. Cubs 90 97.2 -7.2
11 2 St. Louis 76 89.4375 -13.4375
3 3 Milwaukee 89 88.67368421 0.326315789
4 4 Philadelphia 89 87.75 1.25
1 5 N.Y. Mets 94 86.96842105 7.031578947
12 6 Florida 75 85.26315789 -10.26315789
5 7 Arizona 89 80.14736842 8.852631579
6 8 L.A. Dodgers 88 78.44210526 9.557894737
13 9 Cincinnati 74 77.625 -3.625
8 10 Atlanta 87 76.73684211 10.26315789
14 11 Pittsburgh 67 75.82978723 -8.829787234
10 12 Houston 77 75.03157895 1.968421053
16 13 San Francisco 59 68.21052632 -9.210526316
7 14 Colorado 88 65.8125 22.1875
9 15 San Diego 85 63.09473684 21.90526316
15 16 Washington 66 60.75 5.25

Posted by Simon at 2:36 PM   Digg! submit to reddit BallHype: hype it up!

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