Thursday, March 18, 2010
How am I doing my rankings? First I take the CHONE projections for each player, next I calculate what percentage of my needed stats they will garner me in my keeper league (3rd place for each category). Finally I see just how much added bonus they give me in comparison to the average player at the position.
A Lot of Depth But Zero Gods
The Outfield position is most certainly the deepest position in fantasy baseball and this is why you are always forced to have more on hand than every other position. In the outfield you are more likely to find a 20/20 sleeper than anywhere else. In the outfield you are certainly more likely to get ample speed. In the outfield you will get a lot, but you probably won't get a fantasy god. Last year Matt Kemp wasn't even kept in my keeper league (a total of 60 hitters were the guy that had him's team was stacked) this year he's often going in the top 5. I love Matt Kemp as much as the next guy, but please look at his splits for a second. When the pressure was off, meaning. he was batting at the bottom of the lineup, he was great. When the pressure was on, not so much. Do you want to spend your first pick in the draft on a player who struggled to hit in a prime spot in his own lineup at a position with depth? Personally I'd rather get a player playing a scarce position that will likely put up similar stats while hitting at the top of their respective lineups.
How Much Will the Suitcases Change the Stats?
Some big faces changed places this offseason and it could mean for a big change in their stats. Jason Bay moves from friendly Fenway to David Wright's nightmare, aka Citi Field. One could easily see a significant drop in all of his stats. Curtis Granderson moves from spacious Comerica to the short porch of Yankee Stadium, will his home runs get an even larger boost? Johnny Damon does the exact opposite move as Granderson, will his home runs decline and will his steals jump?
Youth Youth Youth
Outfield always provides breakout campaigns, you simply need to find the right youngster and ride them. This year is no exception. Will Carlos Gonzalez or Dexter Fowler emerge in Colorado? Will Carlos Gomez steal 70 bases with a starting role? Can Delmon Young finally break out? Will Jason Heyward make the Braves opening day roster?
The New Versions of Juan Pierre
Apparently Juan Pierre is a player that needed to be cloned around much of the league as their are at least 4 players that fit the bill for all speed no power. The players that are on my mind are Michael Bourn, Carlos Gomez, Julio Bourbon and Nyjer Morgan. Each player is likely to net you 40+ steals, perhaps significantly more, maybe 100+ runs with the price of approximately 5 hrs and maybe 50 rbi. It's tough to draft these players despite their massive help in one of the 5*5 categories because you need to build your team in the early rounds to help support this pick (ie draft Ryan Howard) and by doing that you are forcing yourself to make sure you get one of these guys.