Here's 5 Rules I will live by when drafting pitchers this season.
1) Don't Overvalue Wins from 2006: Wins are a by-product of the team that a pitcher is on and luck. For instance Freddy Garcia won 17 games last season with a 4.53 while Jason Schmidt and Chris Young won 11 with eras a full run lower.
2) Ks are Consistant: Pitchers who get Ks in one season don't typically significantly decline in subsequent seasons. Sure there are injuries which knock people down and some aberations, but finesse pitchers are finesse power guys that get Ks will continue to get them.
3) Down the Stretch: I like to look at how pitchers finished to season to garner an idea of how they will be in 2007. However, I am not blowing this out of proportion as I did last year. Josh Towers, in 2005 finished the last two months of the season with a 2.50 era, he started the 2006 season with an era over 10, and subsequently killed my roto era value. Take note of hot finishes but do not let that make you jump a guy dramatically up your board.
4) Closer Run: In my league we have 3 closers, if you get 3 stable closers for the whole season you will do very well in that category. If not, well, have fun on the waiver wire. I will certainly attempt to fire away in the middle rounds at closers like Chad Cordero, JJ Putz and Chris Ray, seeing them as stable, but not too early.
5) Identify Sleepers: Last year I picked Dave Bush with the last pick of the draft aka round 25 of a 12 team league. My father identified Justin Verlander in the last round. Both helped us tremendously in the pitching and all it cost was taking a mild risk with our last pick. There will always be a pitcher fall towards the end of the draft who performs. Find them before the draft or be quick to pull the trigger on the waiver wire during the opening weeks.
Note: I am already better pitching then I was last year. Last year I inherited a keeper team and where my best two options for keepers were Kerry Wood and Zach Duke, ugh kick in the junk. Well Arroyo was on the roster as well, but if you thought Arroyo was going to put up those numbers you were toking up. Anyway this year I have Sabathia and Bonderman, two steady and solid fantasy starters. Not superstars but a much bigger upgrade than last season.
1) Don't Overvalue Wins from 2006: Wins are a by-product of the team that a pitcher is on and luck. For instance Freddy Garcia won 17 games last season with a 4.53 while Jason Schmidt and Chris Young won 11 with eras a full run lower.
2) Ks are Consistant: Pitchers who get Ks in one season don't typically significantly decline in subsequent seasons. Sure there are injuries which knock people down and some aberations, but finesse pitchers are finesse power guys that get Ks will continue to get them.
3) Down the Stretch: I like to look at how pitchers finished to season to garner an idea of how they will be in 2007. However, I am not blowing this out of proportion as I did last year. Josh Towers, in 2005 finished the last two months of the season with a 2.50 era, he started the 2006 season with an era over 10, and subsequently killed my roto era value. Take note of hot finishes but do not let that make you jump a guy dramatically up your board.
4) Closer Run: In my league we have 3 closers, if you get 3 stable closers for the whole season you will do very well in that category. If not, well, have fun on the waiver wire. I will certainly attempt to fire away in the middle rounds at closers like Chad Cordero, JJ Putz and Chris Ray, seeing them as stable, but not too early.
5) Identify Sleepers: Last year I picked Dave Bush with the last pick of the draft aka round 25 of a 12 team league. My father identified Justin Verlander in the last round. Both helped us tremendously in the pitching and all it cost was taking a mild risk with our last pick. There will always be a pitcher fall towards the end of the draft who performs. Find them before the draft or be quick to pull the trigger on the waiver wire during the opening weeks.
Note: I am already better pitching then I was last year. Last year I inherited a keeper team and where my best two options for keepers were Kerry Wood and Zach Duke, ugh kick in the junk. Well Arroyo was on the roster as well, but if you thought Arroyo was going to put up those numbers you were toking up. Anyway this year I have Sabathia and Bonderman, two steady and solid fantasy starters. Not superstars but a much bigger upgrade than last season.
Comments