Monday, March 12, 2007
Yesterday I had my first of 3 drafts this season. Thus it's time to breakdown the picks I made and how I think I did.
League is Head to Head Categories
League Rosters: 2 C, 2 1B, 2 2B, 2 SS, 2 3B, 3 OF, 4 Util, 3 SP, 2 RP, 3 P, 5 BN
League Categories: R, H, 1B, 2B, 3B, HR, RBI, SB, BB, AVG, IP, W, CG, SHO, SV, K, ERA, WHIP, K/9
One of my main strategies for this league was to pick up high average guys. If you look at the categories, with H, 1B, 2B, 3B, AVG all highly leaning towards guys that get on base a lot. My top 6 picks all consisted of guys who hit .300+. I only veared from this strategy a few times when I picked up guys like Mike Cameron who was on the board for well too long given his 20/20 potential and the fact Ks aren't a negative category.
1. (8) Chase Utley 2B - I had to choose in the first round between Utley and Ryan Howard, I went Utley because of position scarcity, average and the fact that the home run in this league is so watered down due to the amount of categories.
2. (13) Vladimir Guerrero OF - .330 a lot of homers a handful of steals. It's the second round there's a ton of talent. You could pick up anyone of a bunch of guys. Vlad stays healthy and the pick is well worth it.
3. (28) Matt Holliday OF - Basically the same numbers as Vlad 15 picks later. I'm a big fan of Holliday.
4. (33) Miguel Tejada SS - Miggy hit .330 last season. With average such a strong category in this league I snatched him up over Rollins and Hanley.
5. (48) Garrett Atkins 3B - Please look at Garrett Atkins #s. He's the most unheralded hitter in all of baseball. .330, 30, 115, 115, at the hot corner. Stud. This just might be my favorite pickup in the whole draft.
6. (53) Carlos Guillén SS - Hit .318+ each of the past 3 seasons. Only issue with Guillén is that he hasn't consistantly played 162 games. So hopefully that happens, either way I'll take the .300+ average and within the early rounds I've locked up 3/4 of my middle infield.
7. (68) Billy Wagner RP - My first pitcher taken was a dominant closer. Some people say don't take closers cause you don't know where saves are going to come from. Eh, I think it's important to get two consistant guys who should be there all year and then try to find extra guys on the waiver wire midseason.
8. (73) Jeremy Bonderman SP - 200+ Ks is coming again this season.
9. (88) C.C. Sabathia SP - Most underrated pitcher in the game. Low 3 ERA, low whip, solid Ks, no hype. A little weird though that I selected both the guys I keep in my keeper league.
10. (93) Huston Street RP - #2 Solid Closer.
11. (108) Mike Piazza C - Catchers started to come off the board very early in this draft. One team in particular went catcher crazy and drafted both Victor Martinez and McCann. I waited around for awhile and made my move to pick up Piazza who I personally have ranked #4 on the catcher depth chart given his status as an almost full time DH.
12. (113) Prince Fielder 1B - I don't look at rankings really when making my picks but I do look at them after the fact to give a semi assessment of how I did. Prince is 81 on Yahoo's Big Board, I got him 30 picks later.
13. (128) Rocco Baldelli OF - People shyed off big time from Rocco, and understandably because of the injury risk. But really there aren't many players who will hit mid 20 homers hit over .300 and have around 20 steals in the 13th round. Stay healthy for once.
14. (133) Erik Bedard SP - Ok so I snatched up my best three pitchers from last season. Bedard was lights out the last two months. Hopefully that means something with him and Mazzone clicked.
15. (148) Morgan Ensberg 3B - Injured all year in 06, hoping for the healthy numbers from 05. Might have been able to get Ensberg
16. (153) Adam LaRoche 1B - I'm not a big Laroche fan, but I needed another 1B before they all got picked and he was the best available as everyone else was shying away. At round 16 I don't think this was a bad selection.
17. (168) Ian Kinsler 2B - Jumped on Kinsler maybe a round or two before I could have gotten him but I didn't want to miss out. He's a prime prospect that with a full season could have a breakout year at 2B. And while I would rather have Barfield, he went 8 rounds earlier.
18. (173) A.J. Pierzynski C - No one wanted Captain Scumbag as he lingered on the board for awhile until I finally decided I wanted a second catcher and I snatched him up. .275 and 20 homers and a guy that plays everyday for the second catcher spot is pretty good.
19. (188) Mike Cameron OF - He was on the board for a very long time and I know his average is going to stink but he has a lot of pop and hits mostly extra base hits and will get me the occasional steal.
20. (193) Chad Tracy 3B - .280+ as a Util and backup hot corner guy. First of back to back Dbacks.
21. (208) Conor Jackson 1B - With consistant playing time this season Jackson could easily become a .300 hitter. I did think he had OF eligibility as well so I failed on that.
22. (213) Dave Bush SP - Make that 4 for 4 on my top pitchers from 06. Being tabbed as a mighty sleeper. I just like the numbers around the board and hopefully the shitty Brewers put up some runs for him and Turnblown doesn't ruin all of his games.
23. (228) Derek Lowe SP - Apparently Red Sox fans dislike Derek Lowe, because I have no idea why he was on the board so long. He pitches in the best pitchers park in baseball has an era in the mid 3s. Sure the K rate could improve, but at pick 228 he's a consistant pitcher who balanced out the back end of my staff, especially when the last 5 picks were all high risk high reward guys.
24. (233) Ted Lilly SP - Low 4 era solid Ks and WHIP and now in the NL instead of the AL east. I think he's a bit underrated and I picked him up after Kei Igawa, who is the Japanese version of Lilly.
25. (248) Aubrey Huff 3B,OF - A little position flex here with the OF and 3B eligibilty. Hopefully he returns to his 03 04 self.
26. (253) Daniel Cabrera SP - Late in the draft it was time to go with potential. Maybe something clicks with Cabrera this season who when he throws strikes is unhittable. If not, he'll be dumped and it won't be a big deal.
27. (268) Kelvim Escobar SP - I would have taken him earlier but somehow I missed him. Injury risk, but mid 3 era and solid whip and K rate in the 27th round and sign me up.
28. (273) Seth McClung SP,RP - End of the draft, I snagged McClung with the hope he would nail down the Drays closer job, if not I'll dump him and try to pick up another guy.
29. (288) Brandon McCarthy RP - Don't know what I'm getting with him here, but again the last 5 picks were all relatively risk picks with potential to be very good or quickly dumped.
30. (293) Carl Pavano SP - Last pick, figured if Pavano could stay healthy in Spring Training perhaps he could be a 15 game winner. Or I might dump him prior to opening day. Not a big deal.
Roster End Analysis
I think I did very well in this draft. There are some risks though. I do not have any backup position players. So injuries will have me scrambling on the waiver wire. I did snatch up some position flexibility at the end of the draft with Huff but thats not much. Mid infield is my biggest risk as I have some studs there with no viable backups on my roster or the waiver wire.
5 Picks Elsewhere I really Liked
18. (177) Jhonny Peralta - Sure he sucked last year, but he has breakout potential and he lingered forever in the draft going after guys like Bobby Crosby, solid risk/reward pick up. I had my SS locked up and was almost regretting it as I saw Peralta plummeting round after round.
29. (287) Matt Garza - You had to dig deep to find him on the Yahoo draft board. And I didn't but someone did and I think he was a great pickup.
13. (122) Matt Cain - Everyone shyed away from Cain for some reason, I was finally going to jump on him until someone picked him up a few spots before me.
14. (136) Adrián González - I love Gonzo this year, and Yahoo had him ranked way too low so I was hoping to snatch him up in round 16 but someone jumped on him earlier than the rankings suggested. .300+ average in round 14 should be great in this league.
16. (160) Brian Fuentes - I see him as a lock to keep his job throughout the season, which in round 16 you don't really get from closers. Once again he was snatched up a pick or two before I was going to jump on him.