Wednesday, January 14, 2009
Here is a breakdown by team of my predictions from worst to best. Predicted Record is in the parenthesis, actual record is in the brackets. Le'Ron is very very confused as to how I predicted them to win one game.
The Really Bad
Baltimore (1-15) [11-5] +10: Come on you thought Joe Flacco was going to lead them to the division title? My ass.
Detroit (8-8) [0-16] -8: So... I picked them to win the division. I've already beaten myself for this as well.
Atlanta (3-13) [11-5] -8: Come on you thought the friggin Falcons would be good?
St. Louis (8-8) [2-14] -6: Ya I kind of banked on them being mediocre in my fantasy league. They sucked and so did my fantasy team.
Carolina (6-10) [12-4] +6: Jake was coming off Tommy John surgery, did you really expect him to play really well?
New Orleans (14-2) [8-8] -6: They suffered too many injuries, but 14-2 was really never realistic.
Seattle (9-7) [4-12] -5: Too many injuries to come close to this mark.
Jacksonville (10-6) [5-11] -5: Don't really have any idea how this team fell off a cliff.
San Francisco (2-14) [7-9] +5: Maybe if Mike Nolan stayed on as coach they would have been closer to 2-14.
Miami (6-10) [11-5] +6: At 6-10, I was higher on the Dolphins than almost everyone. Nobody had them in the playoffs.
Cincinnati (8-8) [4-11-1] -4: Carson Palmer going down equals a not .500 football team.
New England (15-1) [11-5] -4: Tom Brady going down equals a team not going to the Super Bowl.
Minnesota (6-10) [10-6] +4: The won 10 games cause their division sucks even more than I thought it would.
Kansas City (5-11) [2-14] -3: From awful prediction to very awful season.
San Diego (11-5) [8-8] -3: The Chargers severely underperformed this year.
Dallas (12-4) [9-7] -3: Tony Home getting hurt certainly didn't help the cowgirls.
Oakland (2-14) [5-11] +3: Are you kind of shocked to see that the Raiders won 5 games? I am, it certainly didn't seem like that.
Houston (5-11) [8-8] +3: If Schaub was healthy they would have done even better.
Chicago (6-10) [9-7] +3: Again I underestimated just how much their schedule sucked.
Tennessee (10-6) [13-3] +3: I had them in the playoffs, but certainly didn't have them as a #1 seed.
The Oh So Close
Cleveland (6-10) [4-12] -2: Everyone was way way way too high on the Browns going into this season. I was not.
Buffalo (9-7) [7-9] -2: The Bills were mediocre. Not surprising.
Denver (10-6) [8-8] -2: They probably should have gone 10-6 but did way too much choking down the stretch.
Pittsburgh (14-2) [12-4] -2: With Fast Willie out they didn't have much of a chance to get to 14-2.
Washington (6-10) [8-8] +2: They were mediocre instead of slightly worse than mediocre.
Tampa Bay (7-9) [9-7] +2: If only my Devil Rays prediction was this close.
New York Jets (10-6) [9-7] -1: They should have exceeded my expectations but instead the asphyxiation in December made them fall short.
Philadelphia (8-8) [9-7-1] +1: The Iggles looked like an 8-8 team or worse after the Ravens game, but they fought back and here they are on the Superbowl door step.
The On The Money
Green Bay (6-10) [6-10] +0: Hoorah for thinking the Packers would have lots of problems with Rodgers at the helm.
Arizona (9-7) [9-7] 0: Hoorah I had them winning the division.
New York Giants (12-4) [12-4] 0: I was high on the G-Men, unlike most who thought they would falter some, and they proved worthy of that praise. Well until the playoffs of course.
Indianapolis (12-4) [12-4] 0: Back to back years I got the Colts record right. Yippy.
Year 1 vs. Year 2 vs. Year 3
Here's the moral of the story, when I pick games I do it on a one by one basis. I look at Week 1 and pick all the games. I look at Week 2 and pick all the games. I look at Week 3, etc. Then when I finish week 17 I add up the records. I make no changes to my picks, I fiddle with nothing and I try to not think about the aggregate records when making the decisions in say Week 14. So what happens is that a lot of teams skew to high ends of the spectrum. For instance having so many teams at 12-4 or above is unrealistic. In the end my picks aren't safe and I give myself the opportunity to be really really wrong by picking teams to win 1 game. Anyway, this year the only thing I did better than the last two years was get the on the money right, other than that it was a poor showing.