When I Say Sell You Say Haren

Tuesday, August 04, 2009

Sell, Haren. Sell, Haren.

Why? Because Dan Haren pre All-Star Break equals God. Dan Haren post All-Star Break equals pedestrian. Just take a look at his splits from the last four seasons, Pre-All Star Break is in Powder Blue, Post-All Star Break is in Magenta.

This is no coincidence. It is a trend. If you can sell high on him now and you are not in a keeper league, do it.

Posted by Simon at 8:38 AM   Digg! submit to reddit BallHype: hype it up!


so whats the probility of this? Well, let's assume a player has the same ability in the 2nd half of the season as the 1st half of the season. Then, due to random chance, we'd expect a 50% chance of having a better statistical 2nd half and a 50% chance of having a better 1st half. Thus, the probability of someone having 4 stright 'bad' 2nd halves is .5^4=0.625. So there's a 93.75% chance that something more than 'randomness' is accounting for this. TRADE HIM!

skyjo said...
1:49 AM  

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