2008 Regressions: MLB OBP -> Wins

Friday, February 13, 2009

It's February, so I'm Trying to Find things to Post On. Therefore You're Going to Get Some Simple Regression Tests from the 2008 MLB Season.

The Major High Outlier: Rangers with an On Base Percentage of .354 and 79 Wins
The Low Outlier: Angels with an On Base Percentage of .330 and 100 Wins

Formula: On Base Percentage = 0.288506 + (0.000549) * Wins
ReFangled Formula: Wins = (OBP + 0.288506) / (0.000549)

Fun Math Time
The regression line appears to have magentic repellent as only three of the teams really come close to the line, but we move on. If I want the Yanks to win 100 games this year the ole formula suggest they'll need and On Base Percentage of .343, which would be a slight improvement from last year. Meanwhile if I think that the Devil Rays are going to have an on Base Percentage of say .330, than they would be expected to fall to 76 games this year.

Posted by Simon at 11:42 AM   Digg! submit to reddit BallHype: hype it up!


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