2008 Regressions: Saves -> Wins

Wednesday, February 11, 2009

It's February, so I'm Trying to Find things to Post On. Therefore You're Going to Get Some Simple Regression Tests from the 2008 MLB Season.

The Major High Outlier: Angels with 66 Saves and 100 Wins
The Low Outlier: Atlanta with 26 Saves and 72 Wins

Formula: Saves = -4.701583 + (0.545737) * Wins
ReFangled Formula: Wins = (Saves + 4.701583) / (0.545737)

Fun Math Time

This is really a useful tool for fantasy players rather than predicting a teams success. How much does winning more games truly effect the likelihood of saves? There's a lot of numbers close to the line and then there's the Angels with a ridiculous amount of saves. Anway let's take a look at it from a Fantasy perspective. Say I think the Yankees are going to win 100 games, than how many shaves should I expect Mo to get? 50. Now say I think the Nationals are going to win 50 games this year because their rotation is dog poo. How many saves would Joel Hanrahan have in that scenario? 23.

Posted by Simon at 4:00 PM   Digg! submit to reddit BallHype: hype it up!


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