Fantasy Toss Up: Matt Holliday vs. Josh Hamilton

Thursday, February 19, 2009


Let's take a quick look at two outfielders that will be fighting for your affection come the opening rounds of your fantasy drafts.

The Fantasy Rankings

CBS has Holliday as the #7 and Hamilton at #8.
Yahoo Big Board has Hamilton at #9 and Holliday at #36?!?!?
ESPN Ranks Hamilton at #19 and Holliday at 27

Projections

Josh Hamilton: .310, 36 Home Runs, 126 RBI, 103 Runs, 9 Stolen Bases
Matt Holliday: .317, 29 Home Runs, 108 RBI, 111 Runs, 19 Stolen Bases

These are just projections of course but if you take these numbers to be truth then the slightest of edges here goes to Holliday mostly thanks to the stolen base difference.

Surrounding Lineup

I think it's safe to say that the A's lineup as constituted today, is not very good. Holliday is surrounded by Jason Giambi (who will likely bat behind him), Jack Cust, always injured Eric Chavez, Bobby Crosby (maybe), Mark Ellis, etc. It's not a great batch of players.

Hamilton on the other hand is surrounded by Michael Young, Ian Kinsler, Chris Davis, Chris Murphy, always injured Hank Blalock, etc. Hamilton's lineup is far superior to Holliday's. He will have better protection and much better run producers ahead of him than will Holliday.

Question Marks

Holliday is moving from the cozy Coors advantage, to a miserable hitters park. But last year was a down year for him, one where he played in 19 less games than he did the year before and still put up 25 homers and 28 steals.

The question mark with Hamilton is whether he actually has a repeat performance in him. He hit 21 of his homers and had 93 of his RBI pre-all star break and then tailed off the rest of the season. Which side is which?

The Verdict

Well if your selection is one or the other than I'd go with Hamilton and the reason is pretty simple, his lineup is unarguably superior to Holliday's. He will have consistently more opportunities to drive in runs and more opportunities to score runs when on base. Additionally, his home park is more inclined to power numbers.

Now if your question is who is the better value? Than I would much rather draft Holliday at the start of the 3rd round than draft Hamilton in the back of the 1st round.

Posted by Simon at 1:32 PM   Digg! submit to reddit BallHype: hype it up!

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