Tuesday, November 03, 2009
Want a simplistic view to show you how the NFL is a pass first league now? Here are the regressions for Rush Rank and Passing Rank to Games Above .500. What you'll notice is the slopes to the two trendlines are vastly different in degree.
The NFL isn't quite to the point where rushing the football is going to be universal hindrance to your team but its obvious that just because you have a top rushing attack you aren't guaranteed victories especially if its paired with a miserable passing attack. You'll notice that 5 of the top 10 rushing attacks in the NFL are .500 or below. This includes the Tennessee Titans who are currently 2nd in the league in rushing and are 1-6. Meanwhile, the Indianapolis Colts, San Diego Chargers and Arizona Cardinals rank 30-32 in rushing but are a combined 15-6.
Passing Rank is a very very very different beast. Of the teams ranked 1-18 in passing attack just one team is below .500. That team is the 2-5 Seattle Seahawks who have combined their 15th ranked passing attack with the 29th ranked rushing attack. The teams ranked 19-32 are all under .500 except for the New York Jets who rank 1st in rushing attack.
Sometimes all you need is the simplest data to tell you whats going on the NFL. The NFL is a passing game. It's no longer a play defense and grind out the ball on the ground. You need to put up yardage quick and you need a solid Quarterback to get it done. If you don't have one, you might as well prep for your early draft pick.