Tuesday, November 03, 2009
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Sometimes the most interesting and lines are those that make you look into the distant future. For instance will Lebron James pick up 4 of the next 10 MVP trophies? At face value one would probably say yes, but you still have to dig deeper into it.
Lebron James is coming off an MVP season. He is the best player in the NBA and will be the favorite to win the MVP award the season and likely every season for the near future. And he's still only 24 which if you think about it is remarkable given the impact he has already had. But 5 total MVP trophies is a very very lofty accomplishment done only by Michael Jordan and Kareem Abdul Jabbar. He has the talent to do it, but there are many risks involved.
1) Injury - Lebron James has for the most part avoided the injury bug. He's big and strong and young. But injury's can rear their ugly head and
2) His Teams Need to Win - Lebron doesn't have more than one MVP award simply because his Cavs didn't win enough games in 07-08 and 06-07. The MVP award is half individual accomplishments and half team accomplishments, if the Cavs suck LBJ won't win.
3) 2010 Free Agency - This could make or break the bet. Lebron could move to New York. He could stay in Cleveland. He could have a super star teammate. He could have Darko as a teammate. No one knows what is going to happen and this could make every difference on whether or not he will cash in 4 MVP awards.
4) Ten Years is a Long Time - The next great NBA player could be a junior in high school right now. He could be better than Lebron for all we know and he could potentially dominate the league from 2015-2019 and make Lebron second fiddle.
At the end of the day, I'm going with Lebron. He should already have more than 1 MVP and after this offseason I think the Cavs will bulk up with an additional A-List free agent that will help the Cavs win for the long haul. Lebron is still very young and he is the best player in the world by a good margin over every but Kobe and Kobe is ready to start the downside of his career. I'm taking LBJ to reach 5 MVP Awards by the start of the 2019-2020 season.