Tuesday, December 22, 2009
Step 1: Win two games. Much Easier said than done. If the Jets lose a game the playoffs are immediately out of the picture.
Step 2: The Ravens or Broncos need to lose at least one game. The Ravens play in Pittsburgh and Oakland. The Broncos play in Philly and home against KC. The best chance for either team to lose is this weekend. If both win the Jets are basically screwed, if either wins they are still alive. Obviously if either/both loses two games that would be lovely, especially the Broncos as you will see later.
Step 3: The Dolphins and Jaguars both need to lose a game.
Step 4: And you're in. Maybe...
Essentially the Jets lose tie breakers to the Jags and Dolphins with the Dolphins being worse to lose a tie-breaker to in the case of a multi way tie that includes both the Broncos and . The reason is that the Jaguars are going to win any multi-way tie breaker thanks to a superior conference record. Tn a multi-way tie that includes the Dolphins, the Phins eliminate the Jets and then go forward to a tie-breaker they may just lose.
Now let's breakdown how the Jets would do in a tie-breaker with the Ravens or Broncos**. These breakers would come down to "Strength of Victory" which essentially is the win total of the opponents you've beaten. Here's how the teams currently sit.
Now if the Jets win their next two games they get a massive bonus as the Colts would be worth at minimum 14 wins and the Bengals would be worth at minimum 9. The Ravens would have no shot as they would pick up either 5 or 7. The Broncos would pick up just 3 from the Chiefs which would have the two teams sit at 63 to 60 based on the current standings.
So what the hell does this mean? It means that if the Jets win out they have a solid chance to beat either the Broncos or Ravens in a tie-breaker. Strength of Victory would become the deciding factor so the Jets not only need to root for the Broncos, Ravens, Jags and Dolphins to lose, they also need to hope that the teams they beat that the Broncos did not (Houston, Tennessee, Buffalo, TB, and Carolina) start/keep winning and that the teams the Broncos beat that the Jets did not (Dallas, San Diego, Giants, Browns, Chiefs) start/keep losing.
*This assumes the Broncos loss is to the Eagles. If the Broncos lose to the Chiefs the Jets win a tie-breaker via better conference record.