Friday, March 27, 2009
People remember the here and now most, they remember the pain and suffering from last season and they remember the joy from last season. The previous years are kind of just blended in the background of the memory. In a draft you must expose this. You must look for players that had a down year that you think will bounce back, they will come at a bargain basement price.
Take Aaron Harang for instance. Harang had two phenomenal seasons in 06&07. His era was 3.76 or lower, his WHIP was elite and his Ks were through the roof. And then there was last year. His ERA was a run higher he got lit up and well that is stuck in a ton of peoples minds. In reality he was both unhealthy and unlucky. His batting average against sky rocketed. Harang is going in the wee hours of your draft and could easily revert back to his stud levels in 06&07.
Another player that fits this category is Robinson Cano. Cano's a little bit of a loosy goosy guy and last year he had an abominable April. It tanked his entire He ended up hitting .276 for the season and is now thought of as a middle of the pack 2b. The thing is, he's not. He's shown up to the spring motivated and ready to go. He's mashing at a .389 pace. He's a .300 hitter, with 20 home run potential, hitting in a massive lineup, at the age of 26. Draft him.
These are the types of risks you want to take in. You want players with a track record for success coming off down years because people put way way too much weight in one poor season.