Fantasy Toss Up: Zack Greinke vs. Yovani Gallardo

Friday, March 27, 2009

It's time to pick between two midtier pitchers who will certainly be on my players to watch list come draft day.

The Fantasy Rankings

CBS ranks Yovani at 135 and Greinke at 142.
Yahoo Big Board says no to midtier pitching.
ESPN has Yovani at 86 and Greinke at 83.

So ESPN apparently loves pitching. Whichever way you cut it these two are side by side in the rankings.

Projections

Yovani Gallardo: 3.99 ERA, 13-9, 196 IP, 201 Ks, 1.30 WHIP
Zack Greinke: 3.99 ERA, 12-10, 194 IP, 156 Ks, 1.28 WHIP

The Projections say Yovani based on strikeout potential. The issue is that Greinke K'd 183 last season in just 8 more innings, why would the K numbers plummet by almost 30? Not sure I'm buying that.

Surrounding Lineup

The Brewers have big boppers in Braun and Prince that are significantly better than any Royals. Additionally JJ Hardy has put together back to back solid seasons. After those three there are some question marks. Will Rickie Weeks hit .220 again? Can Corey Hart get on base at a better clip or will he continue to basically never walk? Same goes with Mike Cameron. Is Bill Hall toast? And well Jason Kendall isn't really a question mark, he's just bad.

The Royals roster is "YOUTHENIZED", with Aviles, Butler and Gordon all core pieces of their lineup. They need each player to bump up their past seasons production. The additions of Coco Crisp and Mike Jacobs add both speed and power to the top of the lineup. With daily pt, Coco could potentially hit double digit homers and steal 20+ bases. Jacobs hit 32 home runs last year in 142 games. He can't hit lefties a lick, but he's got pop and is mashing in the spring with 6 bombs already.

Question Marks

The Greinke brain. The Greinke brain is a brain that has broken down and almost ended his career in the past. A little mental flair up and Greinke could potentially go from a solid mid-tier ace to a guy sitting in a Psych ward.

For Yovani its really the sophomore slump. Some times pitchers bust out in their rookies years and dominate and then the batters start to adjust to the pitchers repertoire. This is effectively Yovani's sophomore year.

The Verdict
This is a toss up and that's why it fits here. I owned Greinke last year and reaped the rewards and I owned Gallardo in 07 and reaped the rewards. This year if I'm going to target one or the other, I'm going with Gallardo. I feel as if their numbers are going to be very very similar but I favor Gallardo thanks to a much better lineup as well as being in the National League. Those extra Ks against the pitchers are just so delicious.

Posted by Simon at 11:47 AM   Digg! submit to reddit BallHype: hype it up!

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