Monday, March 02, 2009
Today I'm taking a look at which peripheral stat is more productive to focus on come draft day, speed or power. To do so I've captured the top 40 Base Swipers and the top 40 Mashers of the 2008 season and ran a regression on their SB and HR totals in comparison to the three other roto categories (R, RBI and BA).
The base stealers are all over the board here. Some of the premiere base stealers score a lot of runs, but so do some of the lower 40 base stealers and this is why the regression is only mildly increasing. For Home Runs it makes much more sense, for every home run you hit you score an extra run, thus chances are good the more home runs you hit the more likely your stats will increase.
The RBI totals are not surprising. Many of the stolen base threats either lead off or bat at the end of the order and do not get many opportunites to knock in runs. Even Hanley Ramirez's RBI totals were 'eh' last year. Meanwhile the massive home run bats get massive rbi totals.
This is the most surprising of the regressions. When you think pure power you think Dunn, and Howard or guys that swing for the fences and make limited contact. I was not expecting the regression for the Base Swipers to be of a much sharper decline than the mashers.
The conclusion from looking at these regressions is that if you're going to dump a stat on offense than the stat to dump is certainly steals. If you focus on getting power guys than you will certainly reap the benefits in both run and rbi production and will not get crushed in the average category, unless you have Adam Dunn or Ryan Howard.