Monday, November 24, 2008
Over the weekend ESPN did a lot of dodging but despite avoiding three bullets, one man is one pick away from a million.
First sfniners_1 was just two games away from 1 million dollars on Saturday. So what did he do? He went out on a massive limb and took Wake Forest (15.8%) at home against BC. He was rewarded by being eliminated after BC scored a touchdown with 1:12 left on the clock to take a 3 point lead and eventually the victory.
Next up user name Jordan achieved his 24th victory when BC defeated Wake. But he then waited until sunday to make his final strategic pick. He chose division leading Carolina (67%) to go into Atlanta and knock off their rival. Boom the Falcons pounced on the Panthers and took them down with relative ease. Here's hoping he was hedging.
User girlie_girl21 decided at 23 victories that she also needed to make a play at 4:15 on sunday afternoon. So she went with... the Panthers as well. Whoops.
And that brings us to gmreynolds71283, who currently sits at 24 victories after avoiding the Panthers selection and taking the Ravens and the Colts yesterday. 1 more pick and he's got himself a million dollars. Right now the only game he is allowed to pick is the monday night football game. The Saints are currently -2.5 point favorites over the Packers, yet the ESPN public likes the Packers at 62.3%.
So what do you do if you are him? Do you just sack up and pick tonight? Do you wait for what you think may be a better matchup, even though it might not come? Do you take one team and hedge by betting the spread on the other? One thing is for certain, his heart is certainly going to be beating at a rapid pace during whichever game he selects.
If it was me, I would get every single cent I could gather up via loan bank account friends etc. and bet in vegas on the Packers and then pick the Saints. Why? It's pretty much 50/50 which team wins. But here's where playing this hedge makes sense. If you pick the favorite in the Streak for Cash and they win then you get a mill, but you also have a chance to win your hedge bet as well. If the Saints ever won this game by 1 or 2 points you end up with 1 Million + your hedge. In all likelihood you wind up with either 1 Million - your Hedge or just your hedge, which certainly wouldn't be a bad thing. Now if you do the opposite and take the Packers for the Streak and hedge on the Saints there is a remote chance you lose both which would be very bad. It's kind of the pussy mans way out, but still wouldn't you rather guarantee you win money than take a 50/50 shot?