Wednesday, November 05, 2008
Possibility #1, Win Out + Some Help: If Penn St. wins out they could still be the odd man out in certain situations. The first being if Texas Tech and Bama both run the table. If Texas Tech loses before the Big 12 Title game then there could be a scenario where Oklahoma or Texas dominates the remainder of their schedule and the title game and somehow jumps Penn St. but I find that unlikely. What I would find more likely is if Florida goes into the SEC Title game against #1 and undefeated Alabama and obliterates them. If that happens then there is a decent chance that the Gators jump Penn St. in some voters minds and in the computers. So, in essence Penn St. wins out they need to a Bama or TT loss and hold off whoever replaces them as conference champ. So they need to tack on some style points in the next 3 weeks.
Possibility #2, Lose and Pull a Buckeye: Last year the Buckeyes seemingly lost their opportunity to play in the title game when they lost to Illinois on November 10th then the world collapsed and they somehow still garnered a trip. If Penn St. loses in the next 3 weeks they will need a similar if not more far fetched result. They would need all but one of the following. The Big 12 title team has 2 losses and none of the Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma St. or Oklahoma teams sit outside of the title game with 1 loss and ranked ahead of Penn St. in the BCS. In addition if Texas Tech is in undefeated than their loss would need to be significantly embarrasing for them to fall past Penn St. in the standings.The SEC Champ either Bama or Florida has 2 losses. If Bama loses the title game after going undefeated during the regular season they will need to get crushed by the Gators. And finally USC loses another game.
So... the world will essentially need to collapse over the remainder of this month for Penn St. to get in if they lose a game in the regular season. Why? Because it's hard for me to A) See USC losing a game the remainder of the year. B) See Florida and Bama losing a game before the SEC Title game. C) Seeing the Big 12 South team losing their conference championship.