Wednesday, November 05, 2008
Possibility #1, Win Out: Just like Bama they control their own destiny, they win out and they head to Miami.
Possibility #2, Lose 1 Game But Win Big 12 Title: Their victory over Texas puts them in the poll position but it could easily become null and void if they finish in a three way tie. Why? Because if you take a look at the Big 12 Tie Breakers, the likely tie breaker for the Division Title is #5 BCS standings. Given the fact that their loss will be the freshest in the minds of voters and the likelihood that their computer rankings will be lower than that of Texas and either OSU or OU than they would almost certainly be left out.
So how do they go about avoiding a three way tie if they do lose another game because chances are likely that Texas runs the table given they finish with Baylor, Kansas at home and A&M which means and if they for some reason don't then a two way tie with OU or OSU would be deadly. If TT loses to OSU this weekend then they to stay at 1 loss will defeat OU, in order to avoid the 3 way tie OSU would need to lose an additional game. If they beat OSU than the opposite would need to happen, TT would lose to OU and then OU would need to lose an additional game. In either scenario TT ends up in a two way tie with Texas and advances thanks to head to head.
Now if they make the Big 12 Title game with 1 loss there will be multiple keys. Obviously they will need either a Bama or a PSU loss or both. Similarly to Bama's situation a PSU loss would be preferable as it would completely eliminate them. Next its all about style points. Preferably for Texas Tech they will face off against a Mizzou team on a win streak for a showcase victory. After that victory they will need to country watch. In all likelihood the SEC 1 loss Championship winner will be given more love than Texas Tech, so they will need either an incredibly ugly win by Bama or Florida as a 1 loss in the title game or they will need one of the 2 to win the title game with 2 losses. Finally they will have to peak to the West Coast and take a look at USC. USC by the final week of the season will be a sleeping Giant.
Moral of the story is that if TT loses at any point before the Big 12 Title game they really really need that team to lose another game because if they end up in a 3 way tie they are likely screwed.
Possibility #2, Lose Big 12 Title Game: Essentially they would need three of four things to happen. They would need Penn St. to look awful in a loss. They would need USC to lose a game. They would need the SEC Champ to have 2 losses. Finally they would need to stave off a Texas jump in the standings meaning they either would need a Texas loss or would need to put a big space in front of Texas in the voters eyes by crushing OSU and OU and barely losing the title game.