Wednesday, November 05, 2008
Step 1: Get to the Big 12 Title Game
Getting to the Big 12 Title game starts this week, and not necessarily with Oklahoma. See Oklahoma obviously needs to win the remainder of their games to get into the Championship game, especially with two coming against Okie St. and TT, but it also needs to avoid a two way tie with Texas. Thus, the Sooners either need A) Another Texas Loss which is doubtful or B) A three way tie between them, Texas Tech and Texas. As I identified in the Texas edition, the tie-breaker is BCS standings and all of this favors Oklahoma. For whatever reason they are currently ranked ahead Texas in both the Harris and Coaches poll. If they win the remainder of the games this will stay the same, they will eventually creep up in the computer polls thanks to two more quality wins and they will overtake Texas in the BCS poll.
Step 2: Get a Loss from PSU or Bama
Just like Texas and Texas Tech the easiest scenario is if Penn St. loss. But assuming Penn St. wins out that means they need to Bama to lose and then on top of that they need to win the style points over the SEC champ or have the SEC champ wind up with 2 losses.
Step 3: Politic
One thing that will be key for Oklahoma's politicking ability will be TCU's result on Saturday night. If TCU manages to beat Utah on the road they will climb and stay in the top 10 in the BCS standings. This adds another crucial chip in their corner. The would be able to argue quality wins and quality losses over Florida or Bama and would just have to fight off the SEC > Big 12 common assumption.
So let's match them up:
Oklahoma would have wins over TCU, Mizzou (in title game), Okie St. and Texas Tech. And a loss to top 5 Texas.
Florida would have wins over FSU, Miami, Bama, UGA, & South Carolina and a loss to Ole Miss. Florida's case would be much bolstered if Bama came into the SEC title game as Undefeated and #1.
Bama would have wins over Florida, UGA, and potentially LSU. Their loss would be against either LSU, MSU, or Auburn.
Oklahoma would most likely be able to over politic Bama and Florida if Bama already has a loss coming into the game. But if Bama is undefeated, it might be very very difficult to convince voters not to jump Florida into the title game.