Wednesday, November 05, 2008
Possibility #1: Win Out, Obviously as the #1 team in the country if Bama wins out no matter who their conference championship game opponent is they are not going to get jumped.
Possibility #2: Win SEC But Lose 1 Game, If the Crimson Tide stumble in the next three weeks either to LSU, Miss St. or Auburn they will not be completely eliminated. Rather they will drop depending on the severity of the loss to spot probably around 5. This means that they will first off require a loss by either Texas Tech or Penn St. to eliminate all undefeated teams. Depending on which team(s) loses it shall follow 1 of three paths.
Path 1, Penn St. Loss: A Penn St. loss (& TT running the table) is perfect for Bama in this situation. If Penn St. loses they will be all but eliminated from the championship picture. This means that Bama will have to hold off 1 loss squads USC and Texas which should be easy. Pollsters already have shown an avoidance of rematches in the BCS Title Game so Texas by proxy will be jumped by Bama. Next if Bama puts on a good show versus Florida or Florida comes in with 1 loss after continuing their dominance Bama should be able to hold off USC.
Path 2, TT Loss: Similar to the above except the main competition for the final slot would be the Big 12 Title winner. TT, OSU, OU, and Texas all have 1 loss and are all considered amongst the top teams in the Nation. Any of these 4 teams win the Big 12 Title game with 1 loss and they would significantly push a 1 loss Bama. In order to overtake them as well as stave off USC, Bama would need Florida to come in looking good and put on a quality showing. In addition if the Big 12 North winner was a 3 loss Kansas squad that would also help.
Path 3, PSU & TT Lose: If both undefeated teams lose than Bama just needs to stave off getting overtaken by USC which should be easy as the Trojans have no big signature games left.
Possibility #3: Lose the SEC Title Game, In order for Bama to get in while losing the SEC title game absolute hell is going to need to break loose. The first being Florida must have 2 losses coming into the title game. Next USC must lose an additional game. Either Oklahoma, TT, Texas, Missouri or Kansas wins the Big 12 title game with 1 loss or Penn St. loses handily in one of their remaining games. Simply put its going to take a near miracle for Bama to make the title game without winning the SEC Title.