Wednesday, November 14, 2007
The Degrees of Loss Separation is a simple concept, I go out and find a highly rated team with some losses playing against a crappy team with lots of losses. Next I find a chain of losses which proves beyond a shadow of a doubt (not at all) that the underdog is going to pull the major upset and storm the field. The Final Outcome is calculated simply: Add up the scores of the losers, add up the scores of the winners in the degrees of loss separation and divide both by the # of degrees.
The Game: Oregon Ducks vs. Arizona Wildcats
When you think of these two teams the last few seasons you think Arizona was at the bottom of the conference and Oregon was somewhere in the upper middle or a notch below Cal and USC. So when looking at their past matchups you would think that there have been a few years gone by since last Arizona defeated the Ducks. If you made that assumption, you would be wrong. The Wildcats defeated the Ducks last year on the road. And with Mike Stoops getting a vote of confidence coming into this game this upset wouldn't be nearly as stunning as those prior this season.
3º of Loss Separation : Arizona beat UCLA beat Cal beat Oregon
A much simpler degrees than the LSU Ole Miss Separation. The Wildcats last week raced to a 34-14 lead over UCLA and managed to hold on for a 34-27 victory. A few weeks prior the Bruins had their largest high beating Cal 30-21 at home. And as everybody knows Cal snuck out of Eugene with a 7 point victory after the fumble for a touchback against Oregon.
Final Outcome: Arizona 31 Oregon 24
In this crazy season would anybody be that surprised if the Wildcats pulled off an upset tomorrow night? The Wildcats are coming off back to back wins and prior to that suffered a 1 point loss so their playing their best ball of the season. So when they knock off the Ducks tomorrow night it will leave the door wide open for the Big 12 champ.